401
FXUS63 KMQT 071754
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
154 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the influence
  of low pressure, then warming and drying early next week.
- Wind gusts to 30 mph and pea-sized hail could be seen in a few
  of the thunderstorms Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon features a weak midlevel ridge building over the
Upper Great Lakes while a weakening trough continues to exit
eastward over eastern Ontario. Increasing subsidence is resulting in
a drier midlevel airmass overhead, with clearing skies across most
of the western half of the UP. That said, plenty of lower level
cloud cover lingers across the eastern UP so far, and sporadic weak
radar returns hint at a potential for a few sprinkles through the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, with a tighter pressure gradient still
present across the UP, wind gusts to around 20-30mph are still
common. Where skies have been able to clear out, temperatures are
climbing well into the 50s and lower 60s. In the eastern UP, where
skies remain cloudy, temperatures may only peak in the mid 50s.

Any lingering cloud cover in the eastern UP should clear out this
evening, but with another shortwave ejecting out of the Northern
Plains tonight, expect clouds to fill back in from west to east the
second half of the night. We may see some showers moving into the
western UP by sunrise. Winds turn light tonight while temperatures
fall back into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The shortwave low action continues through this weekend as a
troughing pattern set up over central Canada tonight makes its way
east to the St. Lawrence Seaway by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, high
pressure ridging over the Northern Rockies and in the Northwest
Territories tonight drops down to the Canadian Prairies and Northern
Plains by Monday morning, bringing with it a reprieve from the
rainfall for early next week. As the high pressure ridge continues
to dig through the Great Lakes region towards New England while
weakening through the middle of next week, expect a cold front to
bring back rain chances back across our area Tuesday and/or
Wednesday night and Thursday. Well above normal temperatures look to
dominate the middle to latter portions of next week as warm air
advection from the Desert Southwest is projected to travel over our
area. More details follow below.

We start the extended period dry for a little while as skies look to
be mostly clear through midnight tonight. This will allow
temperatures to drop down into the mid to low 40s in the central and
east tonight as cloud cover looks to be limited/not make it to those
areas until near/after dawn. That being said, rain showers look to
return to the western U.P. late tonight as yet another shortwave
rotates down from southern Manitoba through the U.P. Saturday. As
the showers move into the eastern half of the U.P. by the mid-
morning, we could see a few thunderstorms develop over the interior
areas as CAPE becomes surface based to a few hundred J/kg. However,
with little shear to work with within the convective profile of the
atmosphere, no severe weather is expected; while shearing picks up
significantly in the upper levels of the atmosphere, looking at the
model soundings shows that parcel uplift is likely (70+%) to not
reach these much higher winds. That being said, we could see some
wind gusts up to 30 mph and pea-sized hail from a couple of these
thunderstorms due to updraft collapse. Don`t expect another breezy
day Saturday, as limited temperature advection, a somewhat
lackluster pressure gradient, and mostly cloudy skies will keep
winds fairly light across the area; the exception could be in the
Keweenaw in the hills to the south and north of Houghton, where
winds could gust up to 25 mph during the mid to late afternoon
hours. Overall, expect the highs Saturday to be pretty similar to
what we will see today, namely the 60s. The showers look to end
Saturday night as the shortwave continues to distance itself from
us.

Don`t expect the reprieve from the rain showers to last all that
long though, as one final shortwave rotates over our area come
Sunday. With flow becoming more northerly, expect temperatures over
the north half Sunday to be a few degrees cooler than what`s
expected Saturday; meanwhile, temperatures look to be a few degrees
warmer in the south central on Sunday. The last of the showers looks
to leave our area Sunday evening as high pressure begins to finally
build into our area...

We finally get an extended period of drier weather come Monday as a
high pressure drops from Canada over the Upper Great Lakes. Expect
sunny skies and light northerly flow as the high pressure continues
to dig into the rest of the Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday.
The current forecast from the NBM has RHs dropping down into the
lower 30 percents during the afternoon hours Monday. While the
recent rainfall will help to keep surface moisture a little higher,
given the dry air from the high moving overhead and the sunny skies,
I wonder if we will see RHs drop down into the 20 percents or lower
come Monday; as for right now, the uncertainty on this happening is
a little too high to make any changes to the current forecast.

We could see the dry weather come to an end Tuesday as the cold
front of a low could move through the area. However, there has been
recently been some model diffluence on where the low will appear;
should the low fire out from northern Alberta, then we will more
than likely remain dry into the middle of next week. Likewise,
should the southerly solutions on the placement of the low win-out,
then the chances for rainfall will become much higher.

As we continue through next week, expect the temperatures to
progressively warm with each day until near the end of next week,
when there is very little model agreement. It does appear that
another cold front will move through around next Wednesday too,
bringing more showers and storms across the U.P. However, zonal flow
is expected behind it in the mid levels, with warm air advection from
the Desert Southwest possibly continuing behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Skies have been able to clear out at IWD for today, but patchy low
cloud cover has moved over CMX and SAW and may linger at least
through mid afternoon. Then, all TAF sites are expected to rise to
VFR levels for the rest of the TAF period as drier air filters into
the area with mid-level ridging. Meanwhile, west-northwest surface
winds will be breezy with gusts up to 24 kts through this afternoon,
but gusts fall off into the evening. A few showers may begin to
work into IWD and CMX Saturday morning, but restrictions are not
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Some westerly gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected across the lake
today as a shortwave low pressure moves through the Upper Great
Lakes this morning and traverses into the Lower Great Lakes by this
evening. Once the winds die down to 20 knots or less this evening,
expect the light winds to continue across the lake until the end of
the forecast period as weak shortwaves continue this weekend
followed by high pressure ridging early next week.

We could see some thunderstorms along the lakeshore Saturday as
another shortwave rolls through the area. While no severe weather is
expected, we could possibly see gusts up to 30 mph and small pea-
sized hail due to updraft collapse.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...TAP