454
FXUS64 KMRX 291100
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
700 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Message:

Mostly sunny skies and generally pleasant weather expected again
today with a slim chance for showers in southwest Virginia.

Discussion:

Currently there are a few passing clouds across the southern
Appalachians, and quiet weather will continue across the region.
Expect to see some very patchy fog early this morning in the low
lying areas and river valleys, but any fog will quickly burn off
shortly after sunrise. Today will see similar conditions to what we
experienced yesterday, with temperatures and dew point values
expected to be slightly lower than yesterday with the more
northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air.

We`ll still be sitting at the base of the trough extending up into
the Great Lakes region and there is enough energy on the southern
edge to see rain chances over KY/WV/VA today. Can`t completely rule
out seeing a brief shower over southwest VA today, but most people
will remain dry with only an uptick in cloud coverage as the primary
impact. Cool air continues to flow into the region after the sun
sets and colder temperatures are expected overnight with some of the
tops of the mountains in the southern Appalachians dipping into the
40`s before sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather will continue through at least Friday with highs a
few degrees below normal.

2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms start to creep back into
the region starting Saturday afternoon. Rain chances to continue
into early next week.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a trough will be over the East Coast bringing
northwest flow overhead until a ridge builds in on Friday. On
Saturday afternoon, a more chaotic pattern moves in with a couple of
shortwaves likely to move through the region through Monday. At the
surface, high pressure is over the region until a low moves into the
Central Mississippi Valley on Saturday. As this low tracks
northeast, it does not look like a clean frontal passage for our
region. The front does come close enough to bring showers and storms
and that boundary may even linger for a bit in the Sunday through
Monday timeframe.

Dry weather will continue through Saturday morning. By Saturday
afternoon, low chances for showers and thunderstorms start to
return. Rain chances will continue through Monday or Tuesday as the
boundary lingers. Best chance for showers and storms will be during
max heating but with these synoptic features, activity could pop up
at anytime. The weekend will likely not be a complete wash out but
you can expect a few passing showers and storms through at least
Monday maybe into Tuesday. Forecast rainfall totals through Tuesday
are currently around one inch or less.

Slightly below normal temps are expected through Friday with lows in
the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temps will be closer
to normal from Saturday forward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Isolated showers may try and move through northeast TN and
southwest VA, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs at
KTRI at this time. Expect VFR conditions to prevail for the next
24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             84  58  80  58 /   0   0  10  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  54  77  54 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  53  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              74  50  73  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...