418
FXUS66 KMTR 270043
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
543 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024

Warmer today as a warming trend kicks off through the week.
Afternoon highs slightly above normal on tap for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1227 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

What a difference 24 hours makes with regards to sensible
weather. Afternoon satellite shows much more sunshine being seen
across the Bay Area and Central Coast this afternoon. Given
greater insolation this afternoon it has led to warmer
temperatures even with onshore flow. 24 hour trends show many
spots running 2 to 6 degrees warmer this afternoon. A nice
pleasant afternoon with temps maxing out upper 50s and 60s coast
and 70s to low 80s inland.

Rounding out the holiday weekend: The marine layer hasn`t gone
away. The low clouds over the coastal waters will spread along the
coast and locally inland again. Not expecting much in the way of
drizzle, but some patchy fog will be possible. For Memorial Day,
morning clouds will roll back to the coast by late morning/early
afternoon. The warming trend observed today will continue
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1247 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

The upcoming workweek leading into next weekend will feature
tranquil weather. The warming trend from the weekend will briefly
pause mid-week an upper level trough sweeps through the PacNW
shunting our ridge of high pressure southward. The temperature
pause will brief as high pressure re-builds by Friday/Saturday
allowing for even warmer temperatures to develop across the
interior. Night and morning low clouds clearing the coast each
afternoon will continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

The marine layer temperature inversion is strengthening, the
depth is approx 1200 feet per Bodega Bay and Fort Ord profiler
data. It`s currently clear /VFR/ except satellite imagery shows
late afternoon stratus coverage over the southern Monterey Bay,
Point Lobos and the Carmel Highlands. Coastal stratus /MVFR-IFR/
redevelops tonight and Memorial Day morning with some inland
intrusion forecast across the Bay Area and the Salinas Valley.
Patchy stratus and fog /LIFR-IFR/ developing in the North Bay late
tonight and Memorial Day morning. VFR returning by late Memorial
Day morning, except along the immediate coast patchy MVFR-IFR
likely continuing through afternoon to early evening.

Vicinity of SFO...Near high confidence VFR continues through the
evening, then increasing probability of stratus developing with
tempo IFR ceiling forecast 12-16z, prevailing IFR until early mix
out 16z Memorial Day morning. West wind 15 with a few gusts to 20
to 25 knots until 04z this evening, wind decreasing overnight to
near 10 knots or less, then increasing to 15 knots with afternoon
gusts to 20 to 25 knots Memorial Day afternoon and early evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Satellite imagery shows stratus nearby
over the southern Monterey Bay, with drier air aloft reaching
across the bay from the northwest. High resolution models forecast
an eddy circulation developing over the northern Monterey Bay,
with a splitting wind flow across the northern Salinas Valley and
Monterey Peninsula may help extend duration of VFR while drying
out the current patch of stratus or hold conditions near neutral
for eventual nocturnal stratus /IFR/ development beginning mid to
late evening. Stratus /IFR/ otherwise is forecast tonight and
Memorial Day morning. VFR returning by late Memorial Day morning,
with low-moderate probability of an IFR stratus intrusion in the
early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 505 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

Northwest breeze over the outer waters persists through Memorial
Day weekend creating hazardous conditions for small crafts. Fresh
to strong northwest and onshore winds across the coastal waters
and bays during the afternoons mid next week. Wave heights
beginning to increase by the middle of the work week up to 11 to
13 feet. Otherwise mostly quiet marine conditions through the
forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...Canepa
MARINE...SO

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