896
FXUS66 KMTR 271725
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1025 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week.
Afternoon highs slightly above normal on tap for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

It`s May and this morning was still gray. Morning satellite
imagery showed a solid marine layer push overnight (1300-1800 feet
deep). In fact, maybe a little more of a inland push than
advertised on yesterday`s model guidance. Nonetheless, most recent
satellite imagery shows some thinning along the inland edges of
the marine layer stratus. Latest guidance from the HRRR captures
this thinning well and indicates this trend will continue through
11 AM. Even though inland areas will clear, coastal areas on the
other hand will hold onto stratus through out the day. Probably
not the best beach day. If you do head to the beach, be mindful of
the cold waters. Recent upwelling and persistent NW winds has led
to chilly coastal water temps.

No update needed this morning...will be monitoring stratus
clearing and adjust if needed.

MM

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

A Deja Vu Monday for most as far as high temperatures go. A few
locations in the interior have the potential to be a couple of
degrees warmer. Summer time ridge pattern in full effect to round
out the holiday weekend. Marine layer remains intact through the
day near coastal areas with the associated stratus retreating to
the coastline by mid-to-late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 131 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Tranquil weather through the work week with stratus clearing to
the coast each morning. A progressive, deep upper low traverses
through the Pacific NW midweek to flatten the ridge a bit. This
will keep any further warming at bay through the middle of the
week, but isn`t expected to bring any other notable change to the
weather. As this feature departs, the ridge builds back and a
secondary warming trend continues into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions with satellite showing clearing
should happen shortly after 18Z for all terminals. VFR will prevail
through the remainder of the day with a return of low clouds
starting with Monterey Bay terminals early this evening, followed by
the remainder of terminals through the night. VFR will return near
16-17Z tomorrow morning. Onshore winds will become moderate to
relatively breezy by the afternoon with possible gusty winds through
gaps and passes before becoming light to moderate overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR as ceilings have eroded. Breezy onshore winds
this afternoon with gusts to around 22kt before returning to
moderate by the night. Low to moderate confidence on low MVFR clouds
over the terminal tonight but high confidence that stratus will
surround the airport around 10-11Z with clearing near 16-17Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR conditions linger but ceilings are
expected to clear between 18-19Z. Stratus will have a early return
of MVFR-IFR ceilings this evening. Onshore winds will become breezy
this afternoon before returning to light to moderate overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 913 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024

Northwest winds begin to ease slightly today over the coastal
waters with a fresh to strong breeze continuing over the outer
waters. Winds increase into the middle of the week as an upper
low moves through the Pacific Northwest. Wave heights beginning
to increase by the middle of the work week up to 11 to 13 feet.
Otherwise mostly quiet marine conditions through the forecast
period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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