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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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595 FXUS66 KMTR 240422 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 922 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1225 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 Summer-like pattern to persist through Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. Temperatures begin to warm Sunday through the next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 915 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 High clouds are streaming into the region ahead of a weak cold front that will cool temperatures down tomorrow, with satellite imagery also showing patchy stratus developing along the coast and into the Monterey Bay region. A check of the latest high resolution model data continues to reveal chances for light drizzle mainly later on Friday into Saturday, particularly along the coastal ranges, with a 10-15% probability of measurable precipitation (above 0.01"). The night shift will take a closer look at the chances for drizzle and will have a better understanding of the forecast evolution. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 The sun is shining over our area, as satellite shows clear skies over our area. Soundings show that there has been some drier air that moved over our region and helped diminish the marine clouds. Some patches of clouds are expected to return tonight near the Bay Area, with moments of lower clouds near Monterey Bay and Salinas similar to this morning. Minimum temperatures tonight will drop overall in the 40s with isolated areas of low 50s. Maximum temperatures will drop significantly compared to today (between 5-8 degree drop). Inland areas will see within the 60s with higher elevations seeing up to low to mid 70s. Coastal areas will see temperatures in the 50s. Minimum relative humidity will also increase on Friday, indicating some moisture will be pulled in from the onshore breeze. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 The low pressure system centered over Washington and Oregon, will continue to dip south a bit, which will enhance and influence some of the cooling trend over our area. Ensemble models still indicate that temperatures will drop to cooler than normal high temperatures with majority of our region seeing high 50s to low to mid 60s on Saturday. Temperatures overnight will remain relatively consistent through the weekend with minimum temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Tuesday night may start to see a slight warm up in overnight temperatures with minimums in the 50s across most of the area. Cluster models also have been in somewhat of an agreement of precipitation Friday going into Saturday as some onshore flow pushes some of the marine moisture near the coast. Chances for precipitation will be 5-10% for less than a tenth of a inch along the coast, which will likely be in the form of drizzle and will cause little to no impacts. As the trough moves off to the east, the ECMWF and GFS show agreement of a broad, weak ridge beginning to build on Sunday into Monday. This will bring some warmer temperatures for the week, especially in the interior regions, with max temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s. With this weak upper level pattern change, models do not show a strong offshore signal, which will allow for a onshore breezy to continue. This will cause coastal regions to only warm up a bit, with temperatures in the high 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 437 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR except stratus /MVFR/ redeveloping late tonight and Friday morning from the SF Peninsula and the South Bay to the Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR-MVFR, gusty west wind and hazy through early to mid evening. West wind easing later tonight and Friday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR, west to northwest winds through the period. MVFR stratus returns to the terminals overnight. Winds will remain breezy out of the west through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 915 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 Building surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean will allow for strong northwesterly winds to prevail through tonight, with gale force gusts across the outer coastal waters. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves as a result. Northwesterly winds diminish and significant wave heights abate beginning tomorrow as surface high pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean weakens and retrogrades to the west and a troughing pattern evolves. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SO LONG TERM....SO AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea