Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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587 FXUS66 KMTR 181956 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1256 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Typical summer-like pattern to persist through the weekend with gradual warming trend for the first half of the upcoming week. Nighttime low clouds will spread inland and then retreat back to the coast by mid-to-late morning each day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon ranging from the upper 50`s to mid 60`s at the coast to upper 60`s to mid 70`s across the interior (a few spots may reach into the upper 70`s). This is as a weak, dry frontal boundary moves across the region. Tonight, expecting less in the way of drizzle however cannot be ruled out in typically favored locations. Temperatures overnight will range from the mid 40`s to mid 50`s. In wake of today`s frontal passage, expecting tomorrow to be slightly warmer across the interior as low clouds will likely be quicker to dissipate. Thus, tomorrow we should see more upper 70`s inland while cooler conditions prevail near the coast (upper 50`s to mid 60`s). && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1255 PM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Sunday night, we are expecting a greater potential for coastal drizzle across the San Francisco Peninsula and coastal areas of the Central Coast. A gradual warming trend is expected from Monday into Wednesday as the region remains between a ridge out over the Pacific and troughing to the east-northeast. Therefore, expecting more of the interior to reach the lower 80`s by Tuesday which is forecast to be the warmest day of the week. Meanwhile, low stratus will keep conditions cooler at the coast. Toward the latter half of the week, look for deeper troughing to directly impact the region. This will bring temperatures back below seasonal averages by Friday and Saturday. Dry conditions, other than overnight coastal drizzle, are expected to prevail through the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Stratus this morning is bringing IFR/MVFR conditions to many terminals. However, as stratus continues to recede and clearing begins later this morning, expect VFR conditions to return for most terminals. Winds to be onshore and breezy to moderate, reaching to around 12-15 knots for most terminals this afternoon. Winds weaken into the late night to become light, and stratus returns to a select few coastal terminals (predominantly Monterey Bay) bringing MVFR/IFR conditions. Terminals further inland are not expected to see much in the way of impacts from stratus. However, the North Bay is likely to see fog development in the early morning of Sunday, leading to IFR/LIFR conditions. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions return late this morning as stratus recedes. Winds increase out of the west this afternoon to around 13 knots. At this time, low confidence in CIGs returning this evening as a result of stratus. Highest confidence is in the development of FEW-SCT low clouds filtering in through the Golden Gate and San Bruno gaps, but maintaining VFR conditions through the overnight. Winds light overnight, increasing Sunday afternoon to become breezy once more. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR conditions linger into the early afternoon today until stratus clears briefly to allow for VFR conditions. VFR is likely to last only a few hours with a few low clouds continuing to dot the sky despite clearing. Winds breezy and onshore around 15 knots. Stratus pushes inland to bring a return of MVFR CIGs in the early evening. Through the overnight, CIGs are expected to lower to become IFR. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 854 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024 Winds out of the north strengthen to become strong and slowly spread over the outer waters through the weekend. These stronger winds are expected to last through most of the upcoming work week. Gale force gusts build in the far northern waters today and are expected to last through at least Monday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind waves from these building winds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 3 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...AC MARINE...AC Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea