Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
606 FXUS63 KOAX 041702 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1202 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances Tuesday afternoon (50-80%) with a 15-20% chance of severe storms, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. - Saturated soils continue to keep flooding a concern as showers and storms move through northeast Nebraska this afternoon. - Mostly dry Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Today and Tonight... Monday night satellite imagery indicated an area of low pressure churning over eastern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Additionally, an area of convection festered over west-central Nebraska in response to an approaching cold front attendant to a low over southern Canada. This boundary will continue to trek eastward through the morning hours, bringing increasing chances of precipitation to the region throughout the day. Increasing warm air advection will begin to develop after 7 AM, and could help spark a few morning storms in eastern Nebraska ahead of the incoming front, where dry low levels could result in a stray strong gust or two due to evaporative cooling. During the afternoon, sufficient instability is expected to develop and strong convergence along the front is expected to result in an increasing-in-coverage line of showers and storms. The latest CAM solutions depict storms initiating to the northwest of the Omaha and Lincoln metros by around 2-3 PM, with those storms exiting to the east by 9 PM. Weak shear of less than 20 kts will lower the ceiling of any severe threat with storms this afternoon. The highest potential for severe storms is expected to occur at peak heating and shortly after when instability is maximized, with largely straight line hodographs pushing the main hazard towards damaging hail and wind (though a tornado can`t be ruled out in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa). Cloud cover associated with the area of low pressure spinning off to our southeast over parts of Kansas and Missouri could muddle severe potential/destabilization, however at least a few storms are expected to bubble up this afternoon. In addition to severe threats, another concern will be heavy rainfall. While this line of storms does look to be fairly progressive today, It wouldn`t take much new rainfall to produce flooding over recently saturated soils. Wednesday and Beyond: With the front moving off to the east for Wednesday, we`ll find ourselves in a northwesterly mid/upper flow pattern with the main jet streak settled nearly overhead to just north of the area. Rain chances for the remainder of the work week remain low, but there could be a pop up storm or two that develops as a shortwave moves through the flow Wednesday or Friday evening. Highs during this time will remain nice in the upper 70s to 80s with typical afternoon winds of 20 to 25 mph keeping things from feeling stagnant outside. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 We have a line of storms forecast to move across the area this afternoon, though significant cloud cover over the region of development appears to be hampering the environment where they are expected to develop. Confidence for storm development has lowered a bit, but still expect around a 60-70% chance of thunderstorms to move through the terminals between 19-23Z this afternoon. Expect winds to start to shift to northwesterly ahead of storm arrival, with a full shift to northwesterly behind the storms by 00Z. Skies will clear out behind the storms tonight with winds becoming lighter to around 5 kt overnight. By daybreak on Wednesday we`ll see winds shift to south or southwesterly then start to increase towards Wednesday afternoon, but VFR conditions should prevail under mostly clear skies. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...McCoy