987
FXUS63 KOAX 051658
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1158 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon. A few
  stronger gusts up to 40-50 mph possible.

- Mostly dry through the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to
  mid 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Today and Thursday...

Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and
the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Thankfully dewpoints in the
50s and 40s will keep it from feeling excessively humid.

The passage of a weak cold front could spark a line of spotty
showers and storms this afternoon and evening, according to the
latest CAM runs. A few of these could be capable of producing gusty
winds, as forecast soundings indicate winds of around 50 kts near
the top of the mixed layer. Otherwise, the forecast calls for much
quieter weather over the next several days. A high pressure system
will set up over the southwestern CONUS, keeping drier northwesterly
flow locked in over the Central Plains.


Friday and Beyond...

By Friday afternoon, a weak shortwave is expected to ripple along
the periphery of the upper ridge, bringing a chance for a few
showers and storms to the forecast area. The best chance for
precipitation will be over southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa
where more abundant moisture could be present.

Precipitation will diminish Saturday morning and early afternoon,
with pleasant weather expected through the weekend. Temperatures
will remain in the mid 70s to low 80s through Sunday.

By Monday, models continue to show a low pressure system dropping
south out of Canada, potentially breaking down the ridge and
bringing rain chances back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period. A front
will drop south across eastern Nebraska this afternoon leading
to a wind shift to northwesterly. We could see a couple isolated
showers along the front develop, but significant dry air near
the surface should lower chances for any significant rainfall at
the terminals to around 15-20%. Winds should weaken this evening
behind the front and remain around 5 kt overnight. Winds
increase again out of the northwest around 15Z to around
15g25kt on Thursday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...McCoy