Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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193 FXUS63 KOAX 050419 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1119 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances this afternoon (50-80%) with a 15-20% chance of severe storms, mainly in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. - Saturated soils continue to keep flooding a concern as showers and storms move through northeast Nebraska this afternoon. - Mostly dry Wednesday into the weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 This afternoon - tonight: The front is starting to push east across our area this afternoon with showers moving into eastern Nebraska. Cloud cover is making storm development difficult along the frontal boundary, but we could still see storms develop this afternoon, especially as the front moves closer to Omaha where the air mass is more unstable. VAD profiles show what the models have been suggesting, environmental shear is very limited indicating a low potential for long-lived severe threat with any storms, but we could see damaging winds and hail up to quarter-size with any stronger storms that develop. WPC has southwestern Iowa in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, due to PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches, and this could be worrisome if we get any storms that develop ahead of the front that are slow moving. Storms along the front should move pretty well, so though they could be efficient rain-producers and put down a quick half-inch of rain, they shouldn`t linger over one area for long. Once storms move out of the area by 8 PM this evening, skies will be clearing and winds will shift to northwesterly. We`ll see temperatures drop down into the low-to-mid 50s overnight tonight. Rest of the Forecast: Our upper-level pattern transitions into a rex block pattern across the western CONUS, with a stationary ridge over the Inter-Mountain West setting up a northwesterly flow pattern across Nebraska and the Missouri River Valley. A strong jet streak setting up over Nebraska will help reinforce this northwesterly flow aloft. Northwesterly flow brings in a drier, regime, which will bring some relief to areas of northeast Nebraska that have been hit time and time again with heavy rain and have been looking for some time to just dry out. Other areas that haven`t seen quite as much rain probably aren`t as excited, but may be happy to hear that this pattern isn`t very conducive for severe weather. This pattern appears likely to hang around through at least the weekend. Wednesday - Thursday: Wednesday we see the development of the northwesterly flow pattern which will bring dew points down into the low 50s for Wednesday and 40s on Thursday. This reflects the drier air mass moving into the region. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit warmer in the mid-to-upper 80s as the ridge nudges in before the northwesterly winds really ramps up at the surface bringing in the milder temperatures on Thursday. Thursday we see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Friday - Monday: Friday during the day should be another mild, dry day with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. Models bring a weak shortwave down the east side of the upper-level ridge developing a weak surface Low that moves through Kansas on Friday evening. Some ensemble members bring shower and storm chances to our area with this disturbance, but we`re really going to struggle to get enough moisture for showers and storms to develop, much less for anything to be significant overnight. I wouldn`t get that excited about storm chances just yet. Right now precip chances around 20-30% seem about right. We dry back out by Saturday morning with clearing skies. Northwesterly flow will keep temperatures mild Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday looks to stay dry and mild as well with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Our next chance of showers and storms won`t be until Monday afternoon and evening when synoptic models suggest the blocking pattern may break down allowing a trough to move through again. This could bring back a more widespread chance for rain. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites for the duration of the forecast period. There may be some gusts up to 35 mph north of US-30 (KOFK) between 17Z and 00Z. More modest gusts for the prevailing FM group were used in the KOFK TAF. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Darrah