782
FXUS63 KOAX 111941
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
241 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of additional storms this evening and
  overnight, and a 5% chance of severe storms. The main threats
  would be damaging winds and hail.

- Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up
  Sunday through Tuesday.

- Active weather returns next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Today and Tonight...

A few weak showers and thunderstorms festered across the eastern
fringes of our forecast area through the morning hours. Temperatures
rising into the 70s and 80s combined with dewpoints in the 60s and
70s led to a boost of instability this afternoon, as MUCAPE estimates
approached 2000 J/kg. A surface low tracked through southeast
Nebraska and into southwest Iowa by early afternoon. A few storms
have begun to develop east of the Missouri River. Spotty showers and
storms will continue to pop-up in the vicinity of this surface low
through the remainder of the afternoon, before gradually shifting
off to our east over central Iowa. Thankfully, the better chance for
severe storm development looks to remain just to our east and south
this afternoon.

CAMs suggest another band of storms developing in the vicinity of a
cold front, draped from southwest to northeast, over northeast
Nebraska this evening. Overall CAM trends continue to indicate this
line will struggle, gradually dissipating as it moves southeast this
evening.

Round 3 will come in the form of an MCV-driven complex that develops
near the Nebraska panhandle and surges southeast overnight. While
these too are expected to gradually weaken as they move southeast
with the lack of daytime heating, an isolated strong to severe
updraft can`t be completely ruled out.

Overall, all three rounds of storms will likely be limited by the
marginal 20-30kts of shear across the region, making it hard for
updrafts to become well organized. While the strongest updrafts may
be capable of briefly producing some strong winds or marginally
severe hail, the greatest threat looks to be the potential for a
quick Tornado to spin up near the surface low in southwest Iowa,
with this initial round of storms. However, that potential is
quickly shifting eastward with the departing low.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Drier weather returns this weekend as mid-level heights rise.
Saturday will actually be fairly nice, with highs in the low 80s and
dewpoints only in the low 60s, as opposed to the 70s that we`ve been
smothered with recently. A few showers or weak storms may graze the
area as a shortwave passes to our south Saturday night/Sunday
morning. Otherwise dry weather is expected to prevail across the
majority of the forecast area through Sunday. Highs on Sunday will
top out in the mid to upper 80s, with dew points into the mid to
upper 60s.

Temperatures remain warm into next week, with mostly dry conditions
through Tuesday. Highs will reach the 90s on Monday and 80s Tuesday.

Tuesday Night and Beyond...

Widespread rain chances return Tuesday evening into Wednesday, as a
cold front drops in from our north and a shortwave moves in from the
southwest. Machine learning probs continue to highlight the Central
Plains for severe chances Tuesday and Wednesday, likely give the
robust instability that will be in place. However, severe storm may
be limited by the lack of strong deep layer shear, which is still
forecast to remain off to our north.

Behind the frontal passage, temperatures will cool into the 70s and
80s, making for a comfortable end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

MVFR to IFR stratus deck is expected to gradually dissipate over
the next few hours. Winds will remain out north at 5 to 10 kts,
with occasional gusts up to 15 kts. Isolated thunderstorms may
pop up near KOMA this afternoon, between 18-22Z, but should
quickly move east of the TAF site. Another round of storms is
possible near the KOFK area between 01-04Z this evening. A third
and final round of showers and storms may effect all three TAF
sites between 09Z-12Z Saturday morning. Given the spotty nature
of the storms and low confidence in whether or not they will
actually impact the TAF sites, opted to leave out a mention of
-TSRA for the time being. Any lingering showers will diminish
 Saturday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the
 remainder of the period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG