306
FXUS63 KOAX 090814
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
314 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very nice weather for today and Monday with highs in the lower
  80s, light winds, and ample sunshine.

- There is a chance for showers Tuesday, but better chances for
  storms arrive by late Wednesday or Thursday.

- Thursday looks to be one of the warmest days of the year, with
  heat index approaching 100 especially over southern parts of
  the area.

- A stormy mid-June weather pattern will settle in by late this
  week into next week...with several opportunities for strong to
  severe storms late this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early Sunday morning is a rather calm and quiet one across
Nebraska and Iowa, but finds a cluster of intense thunderstorms
and flash flooding over southern Kansas and Missouri. The good
news for our forecast area is that those storms will stay well
to the south, with their only influences being a bit of very
light rain across far southeast NE through around 7 AM or so,
and an expanse of upper level anvil clouds over a good portion
of the area.

A ridge of surface high pressure will be pretty much dominating
our area for all of today and most of Monday. Winds will be
light with increasing sunshine through the course of the day.
The June sun will warm us efficiently, and should bring
temperatures into the lower 80s for most everyone today...and
almost identical temperatures on Monday. By late on Monday, the
surface high will shift east with some southerly flow returning
to the area. A northern stream short wave trough will move east
across southern Canada, dragging a front through Nebraska on
Tuesday. With the trough centered so far north, this looks to be
a pretty weak front that more or less washes out over the area,
but may provide enough forcing for scattered showers late Monday
night into Tuesday. As of now, it looks to be a pretty low
impact scenario with limited rainfall.

Wednesday into Thursday will feature a relatively zonal flow
pattern aloft with another embedded short wave trough moving
through it on Wednesday, and again on Thursday. Both of these
time frames look to have a better supply of boundary layer
moisture given a few days of southerly flow with warm moist
advection. That warm advection will also bring our hottest
temperatures of the year, with Thursday in particular looking
likely to have highs greater than 90, and possibly heat index
flirting with 100. While the best forcing looks to remain north
of the local area, could see sufficient forcing to support
storms into our area late Wednesday, and perhaps a better chance
for this on Thursday. The Wednesday potential seems to be
driven by a cool front as well as an increasing low level jet,
while the Thursday scenario will probably have a surface front
set up over/near the forecast area. Wind shear profiles appear
sufficient in the warm sector on either of these days to support
storm organization and some severe weather threat when paired
with moderate to perhaps strong instability.

For Friday through the weekend, model agreement is strong in
ejecting a couple pieces of short wave trough energy from off
the southern California coast into the Central Plains. Timing of
these will be key, and if the timing of the forcing and
associated fronts is favorable, would expect one or two rounds
of severe storms Friday and Saturday. Even looking to Sunday and
beyond, the weather pattern appears to be quite unsettled, and
it seems we`ll be getting into our fairly typical mid June
stormy pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions throughout the TAF forecast with winds less than
12 knots. Broken cirrus at 20000-25000 feet at TAF issuance,
but becoming mostly sunny with high level ceilings scattering
out after 12z. There could be spotty showers in southeast NE
early this morning, but should remain south of the KLNK
location.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Omaha and Norfolk have yet to hit 90F this year which is nearly
a month behind schedule when averaging the date of the first 90F
day over the past 30 years. Both cities are currently forecast
to get there by Thursday.

Despite the lack of 90F days thus far, the entire area is still
averaging warmer than normal high temps for the past 30 days,
past 90 days, and past 365 days. In fact, the past year (6/8/23
to 6/7/24) is tied for the fourth warmest of the same period at
Omaha (+2.7) and sixth warmest for KOFK in their POR (+3.5F).

Lincoln climbed to 91F this past Thursday (30 days later than
latest 30 year average) and is on a scorching pace. The past 365
days were the warmest early June to early June for the
threadex`s 136 year history.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...DeWald
CLIMATE...Nicolaisen