Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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607 FXUS64 KOHX 211125 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 625 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 We will get to enjoy another quiet day across Middle TN with a ridge of high pressure off to our east. Highs will be warm once again pushing into the upper 80s to some lower 90s. There is some weak instability that builds over the Plateau in the afternoon and that will bring some afternoon CU but the chances for a shower or thunderstorms look very low. As we head into Wednesday we will be moving into an unsettled weather pattern that will stick with us into the weekend. A trough and surface low will be working through the western Great Lakes moving north into the Canada. This will set up a cold front to our west with storms developing along it. The first round of storms with it will push into our west late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The front will still be off to the west and this line of storms should weaken as it crosses the TN River. CAPE will be elevated early Wednesday and will generally be under 500 j/kg. A severe threat with this line is not expected and it will diminish quickly as it pushes east after daybreak and should just be showers by the time it reaches the Nashville area. Things then look to dry out for a time Wednesday but we should see stuff develop to our west once again along the front. The front will then push east Wednesday later afternoon into the overnight. 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE will build in during the day Wednesday with bulk shear pushing above 30 knots. The highest CAPE will be over the western portion of the area and this is the area that will see the highest risk for a few stronger storms in the late afternoon and early overnight. 0-1 km shear looks to remain weak and that will keep the tornado threat low with wind and hail being the main threats with any stronger storms along with heavy rain. As storms push east into the overnight the severe threat will be lower. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 The cold front will stall over the region and this will keep an unsettled weather pattern in place. We will see short waves pass over the area from time to time Thursday through the weekend. This will bring periods of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread sever weather is unlikely during this time frame but we will see high CAPE over the area and shear will be marginal, a few strong storms here and there will be possible with wind and hail being the threats. PWATs will be high between 1.0 and 1.5" and heavy rain will be likely with any convection and could at least bring a low-end shot at some cumulative flooding by Monday. Upper level trough will push into the Great Lakes early next week pushing a front into the region. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs will cool into the lower 80s Thursday and Friday and will warm back into the mid to upper 80s over the weekend. They will cool some early next week but will stay in the 80s. Summer like dew points build in by Thursday staying in the lower 70s through the weekend, it will feel humid out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions persist today. Winds will pick up later this morning to 5-10 kts out of the south. Cloud coverage will increase at the tail end of this taf cycle ahead of a line of storms forecast to move through overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 68 86 69 / 0 20 40 50 Clarksville 90 68 83 66 / 0 50 50 70 Crossville 83 63 79 63 / 10 10 20 30 Columbia 89 67 86 67 / 0 10 30 40 Cookeville 85 65 80 65 / 10 10 30 40 Jamestown 84 64 80 64 / 10 10 30 40 Lawrenceburg 88 67 85 67 / 0 10 20 30 Murfreesboro 90 67 85 67 / 0 10 30 40 Waverly 91 68 83 65 / 0 40 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Baggett