096
FXUS64 KOHX 181109
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
609 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Plenty of low level moisture and calm winds are allowing for
fog development across the area this morning. Any patchy dense fog
has been short lived up to this point and with passing clouds and
some showers developing over the next few hours, we`ll continue
to see intermittent reduced visibilities. Today is expected to be
another rainy day with a better potential of thunderstorms from
mid morning through early evening. Surface CAPE values will likely
work their way toward 1500 j/kg later this morning, but bulk shear
is expected to remain low (around 20 knots). We could see storms
develop and become strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall,
especially south of I-40 where in instability is highest for a
longer period of time today. Storm chances will last through most
of the evening over our most southeastern counties. As the upper
wave passes to our east tonight storms will disappear, but stray
showers may continue into Sunday over the Cumberland Plateau.
Other than those few sprinkles, Sunday should be a really nice day
to be outside.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Ridging builds in on Sunday night and sets us up for a dry start
to the work week. Temperatures will remain warm Monday and
Tuesday, with highs in mid to upper 80s. Heading into Wednesday a
strengthening surface low will drag a cold front through the mid
Mississippi Valley, threatening Middle TN with showers and storms
as early as Wednesday morning. But this low speeds north of the
Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon leaving a weak boundary draped
to our west..or maybe right on top of us. It`s still a little too
early to be certain. That boundary will linger around the area
through Friday when a shortwave may finally swing by and push it
east. So we`ll keep a chance of showers and storms in the forecast
from Wednesday into the weekend for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

MVFR to LIFR cigs will start to rise as the morning goes on and
should return to VFR levels by the afternoon. Patchy fog will also
lift by 14z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop late
morning and continue into the afternoon, MVFR/IFR in any
thunderstorms. Shower activity will diminish during the evening.
Patchy fog will be possible tonight and will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions. Light northerly winds under 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  63  86  64 /  80  20  10   0
Clarksville    78  62  85  62 /  70  10   0   0
Crossville     73  57  79  57 /  90  40  20   0
Columbia       77  61  85  61 /  90  20  10   0
Cookeville     75  60  80  59 /  90  40  10   0
Jamestown      72  58  80  57 /  90  30  10   0
Lawrenceburg   77  61  84  62 /  90  20  10   0
Murfreesboro   78  61  85  61 /  80  30  10   0
Waverly        77  60  85  62 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Mueller