Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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859 FXUS64 KOHX 091723 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 After some overnight showers and storms, including a few strong storms with gusty winds west half, it has been a quiet and mostly rain-free mid morning for Middle TN. But, that will change as more clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms move in from the northwest. At this point, instability is unimpressive and mostly elevated above the surface, so any storms over the next couple of hours will feature just occasional lightning and downpours. As we get into mid to late afternoon, instability will increase, especially along and south of I-40 where surface based capes are expected to climb to 1500-2500 J/kg with 40-50KT mid level winds. This will result in some strong or briefly severe storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy downpours. Passage of a cold front from north to south will shut off rain chances for areas north of I-40 by 8 PM, and across southern areas by midnight. Later tonight, drier and cooler air with a high pressure system from Canada will start to move in. There will be enough residual moisture for patchy fog through daybreak. Monday will be a very fine day with sunshine, lower humidity and below normal temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Blue skies, dry air, and bright sun means lots of UV, so protect yourself outdoors. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Surface high pressure with northwest flow aloft will let us enjoy some especially beautiful and low humidity conditions through Tuesday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for morning lows and afternoon highs. We knew it would come, and by midweek real summertime wx will be knocking on the door. Northwest flow aloft will weaken and give way to a building upper level ridge. Temperatures and humidty levels will climb, and we can expect hot and humid conditons to take hold by the weekend. Through this week, a stray pop-up shower or storm cannot be ruled out, particularly late week when humidity creeps up. But for the most part, models show the dry air and strong ridge suppressing any significant rain chances. This drier trend is not expected to stay locked in as extended models show an influx of tropical air for next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers will impact the terminals through the afternoon before ending from NW/SE. A storm cannot be ruled out at BNA/MQY so VCTS was included. As the surface front moves through the terminals, MVFR cigs will clear allowing conditions to improve to VFR. A period of fog is possible near dawn at CSV/SRB. Winds will be out of the NW/WNW below 10 kts for the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 60 82 57 81 / 40 0 0 0 Clarksville 57 79 54 78 / 30 0 0 0 Crossville 55 75 51 75 / 30 0 0 0 Columbia 59 82 55 81 / 50 0 0 0 Cookeville 56 77 53 76 / 30 0 0 0 Jamestown 55 75 50 75 / 20 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 59 81 55 79 / 50 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 59 82 55 80 / 40 0 0 0 Waverly 57 80 55 79 / 40 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Reagan