862
FXUS64 KOHX 070247
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
947 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Cold front starting to work its way through the area, with
dewpoints already in the mid to upper 50s in the far NW and in KY.
Some light isolated showers are possible but not expecting any
heavy rain or impacts this evening. Lows tonight should get into
the mid 50s to around 60, and highs tomorrow in the mid 70s to mid
80s with continued dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday night)
Issued at 1115044 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

After a very warm and humid Thursday, passage of a late day cold
front will bring cooler and less humid conditions. Friday will be
an excellent day with sunny skies, slightly below normal temps, reasonable
humidity levels, and a northwest breeze. Surface high pressure
will be located directly over the area and this high center will
keep conditions very nice through Friday night as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

This weekend, we will be under northwest flow aloft. A series of
disturbances / weakening MCSs will come our way. The first of
these systems will approach on Saturday. This wave is expected to
dissipate as it moves into relatively dry and stable air across
our area, but some models do show a few remnant scattered showers
making it into northwest Middle Tennessee. Based on our latest
official model blend, we can expect patchy cloudiness but a mainly
rain-free Saturday. Temps will be seasonably warm Saturday but
humidity levels will remain reasonable.

We will see more significant rain and thunderstorm chances late
Saturday night through Sunday morning with a decaying MCS and a
cold front. Thankfully, we are not expecting severe wx with these
systems as atmospheric conditions continue to look stable.
Also, we are not looking for any flooding with average expected
rainfall amounts from one quarter to one half inch. Although the
main batch of rain and thunder is expected Sunday morning,
scattered showers and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon as
well until a cold front drops completely across the area. This
Sunday evening cold front will usher in another shot of cooler
than normal air with low rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

For those looking for a break from the rainy pattern, the
extended outlooks from CPC show a cooler and drier than normal
pattern across the region early next week, transitioning to a warm
but still dry pattern mid and late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. SCT clouds 050-070 clearing
later this evening. Breezy west winds up to 15 knots through
05-07z with light winds overnight. Winds will increase tomorrow
after 15z, strongest over the Plateau.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  84  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    60  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     55  76  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       60  83  58  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     57  78  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      54  77  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   61  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   60  83  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        61  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Barnwell
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller