607
FXUS64 KOHX 120506
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Tweaked hourly gridded temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed/direction
grids blending them with associated previously forecasted hourly
gridded late evening values. Current regional temperature trends
continue to be in line with forecasted overnight low values. KOHX
12/00Z sounding really showing extent of how much ridging influences
surface through low to mid atmospheric levels are currently in
play. Derived PW values are only around 0.49 inch for a early
summertime night with sounding trace profiles and other derived
indicies showing a stable airmass in place across our area.
Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Surface high pressure is centered to our north, with Middle
Tennessee still on the "cool side" of the ridge. The spring-like
temperatures we are currently enjoying will not last much longer.
During the next couple of days, the surface ridge will slide
across the mid state, and summer will then come at us quickly.
Until then, the atmosphere remains very dry. (The morning
Precipitable Water at OHX was only 0.44", which is close to a
record low value for June 11.)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

By Thursday, many Middle Tennessee locations will reach 90 degrees
or better. Temperatures will keep increasing through Sunday, when
expected highs will get very close to triple digits. Beyond
Sunday, there are low rain chance beginning on Monday, but the
models really start to diverge at this point; we might not see
rain until later in the week, in fact. While temperatures will
back off somewhat next week, we will stay above normal for the
foreseeable future. Even the 8-14 day outlook keeps us above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. SCT to BKN high level
clouds. Light northerly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  62  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    83  58  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     81  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       85  59  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     81  59  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      81  57  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   85  59  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   86  59  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        84  58  89  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Mueller