554
FXUS64 KOHX 032330
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level ridge is sitting off to our north with zonal flow
setting up over us. Overall we will see quiet weather today but a
short wave to our west will push east into our area. This will be
enough to kick off a few scattered showers and thunderstorms after
20z mainly to the west of I-65. We will have quite a bit of CAPE
around but with little to no wind shear and poor lapse rates
strong storms are not expected. With PWATs above 1.50" heavy rain
can be expected with any convection. Any thunderstorm activity
that develop should die down quickly as sunset approaches. Highs
this afternoon will be warm in the mid 80s to near 90.

Much of the overnight will be dry but a decaying thunderstorm
complex will push east into our area by daybreak as an MCV. This
will give us some forcing and may kick off a few showers and
thunderstorms in the morning. The MCV will linger over the area
into the afternoon and will bring an increased chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Soundings once again show
quite a bit of CAPE but overall shear will be low and lapse rates
will be poor. This will limit the potential for strong storms.
PWATs remain high and heavy rain can be expected with any
thunderstorms. With the cloud cover on Tuesday daytime highs will
be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level trough will be pushing out of the northern Rockies
into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will push a cold front
into our area. Warm air advection and increase in moisture Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning will bring the chance for a few
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will
increase late morning into the afternoon as the cold front
approaches the area. Thunderstorm chances diminish during the
evening and overnight. 0-6 km shear does increase some on
Wednesday pushing above 20 knots and mid-level lapse rates
increase some also. This will give us a chance to see isolated
stronger storms in the afternoon. Gusty winds and heavy rain will
be the main threats with anything stronger but some hail will also
be possible.

The front will linger over the area on Thursday and could bring a
few thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon over the
Plateau. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid 80s and they will
be a bit warmer on Thursday in the mid to upper 80s. Dew points
will push above 70 on Wednesday but drier air will gradually
filter in on Thursday. The end of the week into the weekend is
looking great with strong ridging to our west and troughing over
the Northeast. This will bring comfortable dew points and highs
in the 70s to low 80s. Higher dew points will start to creep back
in Sunday into next week along with some instability. Won`t see
much forcing but with the CAPE back we could see a few pop up
afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A series of weak impulses within the westerly flow will provide
mainly afternoon and evening convection throughout the taf period.
A stronger shortwave will be on approach late in the day on
Tuesday. We should therefore see even more shower and tstm
coverage after 18Z. Cigs for the most part will remain aoa 3kft. Otherwise,
patchy fog will be possible for the taf sites late. Best chances
will be for CSV and also for CKV where some heavier amounts of
earlier rainfall will have occurred. Vsbys looks as though they
should remain aoa 3sm.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      69  84  70  83 /  30  80  60  90
Clarksville    67  84  69  81 /  40  80  70  90
Crossville     62  78  63  78 /  20  80  70  90
Columbia       67  83  68  83 /  40  90  60  90
Cookeville     65  80  65  79 /  30  80  70  90
Jamestown      62  79  64  79 /  20  80  70  90
Lawrenceburg   67  82  68  83 /  30  90  70  90
Murfreesboro   67  84  68  84 /  30  90  70  90
Waverly        66  82  68  81 /  40  80  70  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....21