757
FXUS64 KOHX 100512
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface front has pushed into northern AL along with greatest
atmospheric instability with just enough instability in our
neck of the woods to support post frontal showers moving east
southeastward across locations generally along and south of I-40
Corridor Region. Expect showers to move out of mid state region by
no later than midnight. Tweaked hourly gridded temperature, sky
conditions, pop, wind speed and direction grids, blending them
with associated previously forecasted late evening gridded values.
Current region temperature trends continue to support forecasted
overnight low values. Remainder of forecast continues to be on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

After some overnight showers and storms, including a few strong
storms with gusty winds west half, it has been a quiet and mostly
rain-free mid morning for Middle TN. But, that will change as
more clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms move in from
the northwest. At this point, instability is unimpressive and
mostly elevated above the surface, so any storms over the next
couple of hours will feature just occasional lightning and
downpours. As we get into mid to late afternoon, instability will
increase, especially along and south of I-40 where surface based
capes are expected to climb to 1500-2500 J/kg with 40-50KT mid
level winds. This will result in some strong or briefly severe
storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy
downpours. Passage of a cold front from north to south will shut
off rain chances for areas north of I-40 by 8 PM, and across
southern areas by midnight.

Later tonight, drier and cooler air with a high pressure system
from Canada will start to move in. There will be enough residual
moisture for patchy fog through daybreak.

Monday will be a very fine day with sunshine, lower humidity and
below normal temps in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Blue skies, dry
air, and bright sun means lots of UV, so protect yourself
outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Surface high pressure with northwest flow aloft will let us enjoy
some especially beautiful and low humidity conditions through
Tuesday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal for
morning lows and afternoon highs.

We knew it would come, and by midweek real summertime wx will be
knocking on the door. Northwest flow aloft will weaken and give
way to a building upper level ridge. Temperatures and humidty
levels will climb, and we can expect hot and humid conditons to
take hold by the weekend.

Through this week, a stray pop-up shower or storm cannot be ruled
out, particularly late week when humidity creeps up. But for the
most part, models show the dry air and strong ridge suppressing
any significant rain chances. This drier trend is not expected to
stay locked in as extended models show an influx of tropical air
for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Overall we will see VFR conditions for the TAF period but patchy
fog will be possible mainly to the north and west of Nashville
through 12z and could bring IFR/LIFR conditions at times. Light
winds tonight becoming 5 to 10 knots out of the north tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      82  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    78  53  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     75  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       82  55  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     77  52  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      75  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   81  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   82  54  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        80  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Mueller