Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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307 FXUS64 KOHX 091418 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 918 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 At 9 AM CDT, Middle TN was pretty much rain-free, but more showers and scattered storms were observed upstream, across western TN/KY and back into MO. The next batch of showers and embedded thunder will move from west TN?KY late this morning through midday, impacting mostly along and north of I-40. No severe storms are expected through lunchtime, just some brief downpours. and scattered lightning strikes. Going into the mid and late afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop area-wide as a cold front drops into the Mid State. There will be more instability, so a couple of stronger, perhaps briefly severe storms with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours may occur. Passage of the front will shut of rain along and north of I-40 around 8 or 9 PM while areas to the south will keep shower and storm chances until midnight. Look for patchy fog late tonight as skies start to clear. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Existing boundary over the region will sink southward during the afternoon, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southwest flow to the south of the front will bring additional heat and moisture to the mid state, increasing instability. Deep layer shear will remain strong, especially with a shortwave trough moving through during the day. This will allow for some strong to severe storms to develop during the afternoon, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. However, PWAT values will be high, allowing for heavy rain and a potential flooding threat especially with any stronger storms training over localized areas this afternoon. Showers and storms should continue southward with the front and be out of the mid state around midnight or so. A drier period moves in after that to start the week, with a Midwest trough swinging southward Monday but looking dry at the moment. CAA will keep high temps in the mid 70s to around 80 on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Ridging looks to work its way in for the remainder of the week, with a warming trend through the week as well. Afternoon showers and storms may work their way back into the forecast Thursday into the weekend, but high temps will be in the low 90s Thursday through Sunday. Long term ensembles suggest a Plains trough could move in later on Sunday into early next week, along with remnants of a tropical low from the Gulf, so the drier period looks to only be in place for this week. Either way, it looks like the heat of summer will finally arrive later this week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 MVFR cigs are expected to spread across the area this morning and into the afternoon. Isolated showers are possible this morning before becoming more scattered in coverage after 17Z. Visibilities may lower at times during periods of heavier rain. Otherwise, W/SW winds will become N/NW this afternoon behind a front. Improvement back to VFR is possible after 00Z once rain chances diminish. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 81 61 82 57 / 60 40 0 0 Clarksville 78 58 79 54 / 60 30 0 0 Crossville 76 55 75 51 / 70 30 0 0 Columbia 83 59 82 55 / 40 50 0 0 Cookeville 77 56 76 53 / 60 30 0 0 Jamestown 76 55 75 51 / 70 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 83 59 81 55 / 40 50 0 0 Murfreesboro 82 59 82 55 / 50 40 0 0 Waverly 80 57 80 55 / 50 40 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Barnwell LONG TERM....Barnwell AVIATION.....Clements