372
FXUS64 KOHX 090002
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
702 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Conditions are pretty much as expected today with showers moving
in from the northwest and mostly dissipating as they run into drier
and more stable air in place over Middle Tennessee. A few spots
may pick up a few raindrops over the next few hours, but for the
most part we will see just some patches of mid level clouds.
These clouds will be thick enough to impact temps. More sunny
area will reach the mid 80s, but cloudier locations like our
northwest counties will be held to the lower 80s.

Rain-free conditions and partly cloudy skies will be in place for
most areas through midnight. After that, rain chances will
increase significantly late night into Sunday morning as the next
disturbance in northwest flow aloft brings numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of rainfall will be
located across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. A
few of the storms could contain gusty winds of 30 to maybe 40 mph,
but we are not looking for severe weather given the very weak
instability. The bulk of the showers and storms will move out of
the area by midday Sunday, but additional scattered thunderstorms
are expected to form in the afternoon as a cold front drops into
the area. The afternoon storms could pack a little more punch with
local downpours and gusty winds as more instability will be
available. Still, we are not expecting a significant severe wx
threat. The cold front will sink southward Sunday evening,
shutting off rain chances from north to south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

The forecast for next week continues to look unusually quiet for
mid-June due to a building upper level ridge across the southern
states. We cannot rule out a few storms here and there through
the week as some minor impulses cross the region. But overall the
week will be drier than normal. The workweek will start out
cooler and less humid than normal thanks to Sunday evening`s cold
front passage. After that, it will warm up each day, and by next
weekend we will reach full summer mode with hot and humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Several admendments probable after 09/08Z per wx element
fluctuations. Addressed best chance of periodic tstms in TEMPO
groups, although tstms could occur outside time intervals. Initial
VFR ceilings will become MVFR after 09/08Z. Sfc winds will slowly
veer SW to NW thru 09/24Z but generally remain below 10kts. VFR
vsbys should prevail/MVFR vsbys during tstms periods. Addressed
shwr chances after 09/18Z with vcnty shwr remarks per expected
areal convection coverage decrease.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  83  61  81 /  60  70  20   0
Clarksville    69  80  58  79 /  70  60  20   0
Crossville     64  77  55  75 /  50  70  40  10
Columbia       69  83  60  82 /  60  60  20  10
Cookeville     66  78  57  76 /  50  70  30  10
Jamestown      64  76  55  75 /  50  70  30  10
Lawrenceburg   68  83  60  80 /  50  50  20  10
Murfreesboro   69  83  59  82 /  60  60  20  10
Waverly        68  80  58  80 /  70  70  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright