290
FXUS64 KOHX 080526
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

No change with this evening update. Still expecting temperatures
to drop down into the 60s with efficient radiation cooling
overnight before warming back into the upper 80s across the W CWA
and upper 70s to low 80s across the E CWA Saturday. As for
precipitation chances, an MCS is still expected to develop and
move into portions of our NW CWA by Saturday morning. Most of the
shower activity will remain N of Middle TN, but some light showers
and sprinkles will be possible through the morning as the MCS
weakens and dissipates.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Dry high pressure has been moving into Middle TN today. The dry
air and full sunshine has allowed deep vertical mixing, giving us
pleasant humidity levels and a nice north breeze to go along with
seasonable warmth.

We will have fantastic conditions tonight as the dry air allows
temps to drop off through the 70s and into the 60s this evening,
reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s late in the night.

We continue to look for development of an MCS up to our northwest
tonight. This batch of showers and storms will make a run at us by
Saturday morning, but most of the system will break up as it
encounters dry and stable air in place across Middle Tennessee.
Still, we could have a few brief showers or sprinkles as the
remnants of the system cross the area Saturday morning and midday.
We do not expect any thunderstorms with this activity. The main
result will be some mid level clouds and very brief light showers
that should not have much if any impact on outdoor events.
Otherwise, increasing sunshine in the afternoon will warm it up
with highs in the 80s area-wide. Humidity levels will be a little
higher Saturday, but still quite tolerable.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Better rain chances will come late Saturday night into Sunday as
another batch of rain and storms comes our way from the northwest.
This batch is expected to hold together with widespread showers
and some rumbles of thunder. Surface conditions appear too stable
for any severe wx risk. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and
evening as a cold front drops into the area. By mid afternoon
Sunday, humidity levels will be higher and there will be some
pockets of instability, so a couple of strong storms with
downpours and gusty wind cannot be ruled out, but we are not
seeing a widespread severe risk.

Passage of the cold front late Sunday into Sunday night will
bring another shot of cooler and drier air, but there will remain
a lingering risk for a few showers or storms Monday as the
boundary moves southward across the region.

The trend for next week will be a pleasantly cool and drier start
to the week with warming temperatures and increasing humidity
throughout the week. Some scattered showers or storms cannot be
ruled out at times, but at this point, models are deflecting the
bulk of next week`s disturbances and rain chances away from our
area. By next weekend, temps and humidity levels will creep up
into "hot and humid" territory with heat index values possible
approaching 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Expecting mainly VFR conditions for all terminals through the TAF
period. Some MVFR fog will be possible at KSRB overnight, and
could also occur at KCSV. Short term models do develop some
showers moving in from the northwest after 12Z, and could impact
KCKV/KBNA/KMQY, but model confidence is low on coverage, so kept
VFR conditions at those terminals for now. Southerly winds around
5 to 10 knots will return by 15Z at all terminals and continue
through the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  71  83  62 /  20  50  40  20
Clarksville    84  69  79  58 /  20  60  40  20
Crossville     80  64  77  56 /  20  50  40  20
Columbia       88  69  85  61 /  20  40  30  20
Cookeville     81  66  78  57 /  20  50  40  20
Jamestown      80  64  76  55 /  20  50  40  20
Lawrenceburg   85  67  85  62 /  10  40  20  20
Murfreesboro   88  68  84  60 /  20  50  40  20
Waverly        86  68  85  62 /  20  40  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Barnwell