224
FXUS64 KOHX 190506
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1206 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Upper level troughing influences will continue shifting eastward,
thus shower chances will continue to diminish over next few
hours, with shower and/or thunderstorm chances ending by
midnight. Current regional temperature trends continue to support
overnight forecasted lows. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint,
wind speed/direction, and sky condition grids blending them with
previously forecasted hourly gridded late evening values. With
decreasing cloudiness and light north to calm winds expected,
and continued ample low level moisture present across mid state
region, patchy fog formation will be possible remainder of this
evening and especially as overnight hours progress. Remainder of
forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Showers and storms have moved into the southwestern part of the
CWA over the last hour with more development further north.
Looking at obs, a weak mesolow is centered near the TN/MS border.
CAMS have the mesolow moving east through the afternoon hours. The
focus of showers and storms should be in the south this afternoon
with more scattered activity along and north of I-40. A couple
strong storms are possible mainly south of I-40 through the
afternoon. Currently instability values are around 600-850 J/kg of
MLCAPE with the CAMs increasing those values to 1200-1400 J/kg
this afternoon ahead of the mesolow in the south. Shear is
outracing the lift, so any tall updrafts will not be able to
sustain themselves. Some small hail will be possible along with
some gusty winds in the strongest cells. Heavy rain will also be
possible across the area today especially in the south where PWAT
values will be around 1.4-1.6". MRMS 1 hr QPF accumulations show
some pockets of 1-2" over Wayne County recently. These types of
rain amounts will be possible farther east.

As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides
east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Sky coverage will
decrease west of the plateau with very light north wind. Patches
of fog could develop after midnight. Once we scour out any fog
Sunday morning, temperatures will be on the increase. Upper
ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in
the 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The start of the extended forecast will see a continuation of
warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s from Monday
through Wednesday. A cold front will try to approach the Mid South
on Wednesday but will lose its eastern momentum as the parent low
lifts out of the central plains toward Ontario. The surface
boundary will get close enough for shower and storm chances to be
reintroduced Wednesday night but more so on Thursday. The surface
front looks like it will linger in vicinity of the area which
will keep rain chances elevated on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Patchy fog is developing across the area and that will continue as
we head through the overnight. The fog will be most widespread for
areas to the west and south of Nashville. MVFR to LIFR in the fog.
Clear skies and VFR conditions after 13z. Winds light overnight
becoming northerly under 6 knots tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      86  64  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    85  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     80  57  80  60 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       85  61  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     81  60  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   84  62  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   85  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        85  62  87  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Mueller