Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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043 FXUS64 KOHX 201732 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1232 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tonight) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Another relatively quiet day is underway across Middle TN. Temperatures around the area area already well into the upper 70s and some have crossed into the low 80s. If we apply the old addage of 10 at 10, meaning add 10 degrees to the current temperature at 10 am and that`ll be your high for today, that means the current forecast is a couple of degrees low. So, we may actually see a few low 90s across the mid-state this afternoon. Records should be safe as today`s record at BNA is 92 set in 2018, but if we reach 90 today, it`ll be the first time this calendar year, but the first time since September 26th of last year. One more nugget: we hit 90 for the first time last year on May 15th. We`re already starting to see some cu field develop, especially east of I-65 and while we don`t have any PoP in the forecast, after looking over a few things this morning, I have to throw in a 20 PoP this afternoon and evening along and east of I-65. This morning`s 12Z sounding here at OHX showed a strong inversion at 700 mb, which is high enough to allow a couple of pinhead showers to develop within these cu fields, but just in case that inversion erodes over the Plateau, I`ve thrown in a mention of thunder. Shear is non- existent, so anything that shows up on radar will likely be very short-lived, but these tiny rain chances could last into the early evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Monday) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Tuesday will be much of the same, minus the pinhead rain chances. However, Wednesday looks to the beginning of yet another period of unsettled weather. Latest extended CAMs just creep into Wednesday morning and are already showing showers and a few storms crossing the TN River at daybreak. This may be a situation where we see morning showers/storms, then a late morning break before additional afternoon and evening storm chances develop. The good news is, at this point, forecast soundings are unimpressive Wednesday for most of Middle TN. We are able to work about 1000 J/Kg into our northwest quadrant during the afternoon and about 70% of ensemble suggest 30 kts of shear or better as a weak front approaches from the west Wednesday evening. That would suggest the potential for a couple of strong storms closer to the TN River, but shear falls off closer to the I-65 corridor. This would coincide well with the current SPC outlook Wednesday. Thursday through Memorial Day looks like multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms as Wednesday night`s weak front hangs around the region. I don`t see one day with a particular stronger storm threat over the next, but with multiple rounds of storms passing through the area and PWs remaining well above seasonal norms, rainfall totals could start to add up by the end of the weekend. Again, while there isn`t any pointed severe threat over the holiday weekend at this point, there is at least a low-end shot at some cumulative flooding by Monday, so check back throughout the week for the latest. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR will continue through this afternoon with scattered to broken cumulus clouds and light south winds. A few small showers will develop in the CSV/SRB area. For tonight, patchy fog will form with vsby impacts most likely for CSV/SRB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 67 90 69 88 / 20 0 10 20 Clarksville 66 89 69 86 / 10 0 20 30 Crossville 60 84 62 82 / 20 10 0 10 Columbia 64 89 67 88 / 20 0 10 10 Cookeville 63 85 65 83 / 20 0 0 10 Jamestown 60 84 63 83 / 20 10 0 10 Lawrenceburg 64 88 66 86 / 20 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 64 89 66 88 / 20 0 0 10 Waverly 66 89 69 86 / 10 0 20 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....13