Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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827 FXUS64 KOHX 170523 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1223 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Not a lot of change with this forecast update. High clouds are moving in over W TN as an upper trough continues to push E. Cloud cover will increase through the night followed by showers moving into Middle TN early Friday morning. Some thunderstorms are expected, but look to remain sub-severe with latest CAMs showing even less CAPE and shear than previous runs. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 KOHX radar is getting a break today with only some Cu and cirrus around this morning. Breaks in the clouds are expected to become more numerous this afternoon. Rain and storm chances will return tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will move in close to dawn. There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area. As far as severe potential on Friday, the potential looks low with marginal shear and CAPE values less than 500 J/kg. && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The trough will slow its eastward progress Friday night with the troughing influences lingering on Saturday with more showers and a storm or two. With the clouds and showers, highs on Saturday should stay in the 70s across the the area. The trough axis will move east Saturday night with northerly flow on Sunday. A couple of sprinkles are possible on Sunday mainly along the plateau. Upper ridging will build in from the west Sunday night with southerly return flow on Monday and Tuesday. With that, temperatures will warm well into the 80s on Monday and Tuesday, and we have the potential of touching 90 for the first time this year on Tuesday. A cold front will approach Tuesday night or Wednesday with showers and storms. Behind the front, temperatures will be slightly cooler. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR cigs will develop at airports early in the TAF period as SHRA spread into the area from the west. Cigs/vis will lower to MVFR by afternoon with continued -SHRA, and IFR at CSV/SRB by this evening. Although TS are possible this TAF period, chance appears too low to mention in TAFs. Light east to southeast winds are expected through the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 63 79 63 / 90 60 30 30 Clarksville 74 61 78 62 / 80 60 20 20 Crossville 69 60 74 59 / 90 70 50 50 Columbia 72 62 79 62 / 80 50 30 30 Cookeville 71 61 75 60 / 90 70 40 40 Jamestown 72 59 74 58 / 90 80 50 50 Lawrenceburg 72 63 79 62 / 80 50 30 30 Murfreesboro 74 62 79 61 / 80 60 30 30 Waverly 73 61 78 62 / 80 50 20 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Cravens SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Shamburger