784
FXUS61 KOKX 300330
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1130 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front and area of low pressure pass through overnight
with a surface trough lingering nearby on Thursday. High
pressure builds in Friday and Saturday then slowly weakens
beginning on Sunday into the start of next week. A couple of
weak disturbances move around the western side of the high
Sunday night, and late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Upper trough swinging into the Northeast pivots a shortwave and
associated frontal system through the region overnight.

The bulk of the embedded thunderstorm activity has already
pushed through, with northeast areas contending with a little
more in terms of embedded thunder where the coldest cloud tops
are showing up on IR imagery. Primarily looking for showers,
although maintaining low chance of thunder later in the
overnight. Rainfall rates were rather high with the rain during
the evening, but rates drop off with the axis of higher PWATs
getting further east during the overnight.

Thus additional showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms which
should remain below severe limits rotates through the region
overnight into Thursday morning as the axis shifts east, with
the steadiest showers pushing into eastern Long Island and
eastern portions of southern Connecticut towards or just before
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
Wet start to Thursday, particularly east of the Hudson, with
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms lingering as the
shortwave axis moves through and a surface trough hangs back
through the region. Along with the cyclonic flow, the cold pool
overhead will likely maintain a low chance of a few pop up
showers anywhere locally into the afternoon.

Northerly flow behind the system will usher in a bit cooler
air, and with the cloud cover, should keep temperatures limited
into the low to mid 70s for most during the afternoon.
Conditions dry out entirely Thursday night as surface high
pressure builds into the Ohio Valley, setting up overnight lows
into the 40s in the coldest locales with a light northerly wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes to the forecast, as generally dry
weather dominates with high pressure in control. Daytime
temperatures will be slightly above seasonal normals going into
the beginning of meteorological summer June 1, then modify
Sunday into the middle of next week as a return flow sets up.
Overnight lows will be near normal Friday night and Saturday
night, and then be a few degrees warmer Sunday night through
Tuesday night.

Strong upper ridging builds into the east coast Friday through
Saturday, then moves into the western Atlantic Sunday and
weakens. Meanwhile weak shortwaves will be approaching late
Sunday with another late Tuesday into Wednesday. Any showers and
thunderstorms with the waves will be scattered, and mainly
across the western and northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure passes through overnight, followed by a post frontal
trough lingering on Thursday. High pressure builds Thursday night.

SHRA continue through the night and into early morning. SHRA with
prevailing MVFR conditions moving in towards 08z for the city
terminals and for the start of the morning push. Prevailing MVFR
conditions arrive the latest for far eastern most terminals (KISP
and KGON) closer to 10z.  There remains a low chance of locally IFR
conditions for KISP and KGON after 10z. SHRA comes to an end from 13-
16Z, west to east. Improvement to VFR by mid-day for the NYC
terminals, with additional pop-up showers possible mainly after 20Z
being handled with a PROB30 group.

Wind shifting N tonight for all terminals behind the passing low
pressure with speeds mainly under 10 kt. Wind remains N with some
gusts upwards of 20kt for Thursday. Any gusts should end towards the
start of the Thu evening push.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed for changing conditions through the night
and a low chance of additional thunder.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: Brief MVFR cond possible in the evening, otherwise
VFR.

Friday through Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Low chance of rain showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions persist through Sunday. An increasing SW
flow during the day Sunday may allow ocean seas east of Moriches
Inlet to build to near 5 feet Sunday night. Then with a weakening
flow seas fall below 5 feet Monday. Otherwise, winds and seas across
the forecast waters remain below advisory into the beginning of next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A general quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain is
expected through tonight, but locally heavy downpours with any
thunderstorms could quickly produce an inch or two and lead to
nuisance flooding, especially in the urban metro and northeast
New Jersey. Flash flood guidance and headwater guidance is
relatively high and any potential flood threat would likely be
localized.

No hydrologic impacts are expected Friday through the remainder of
the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk for rip current development at the ocean beaches
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...JE/DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...