823
FXUS61 KOKX 110527
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
127 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs move across the area through Tuesday
night. High pressure will then build across during mid week. A
cold front will approach on Friday and move through in the
afternoon and at night. High pressure will then follow for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast on track through the overnight. Partly cloudy skies are
expected, but with the upper trough axis nearby, intervals of
mostly cloudy skies takes place at times. This is most likely
inland across the Lower Hudson Valley and off to the immediate
south late with an MCS pushing off the Delmarva / Cape May, NJ.
Temps overnight should bottom out close to 60 in/around NYC and
in the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Another sfc trough develops inland daytime Tue, but with a
weaker pressure gradient expect better sea breeze development
in the afternoon along the coast. Another passing shortwave
could touch off an isolated late day shower well inland. Temps
should be similar to those of today, with highs again in the
70s.

This sfc trough will also move offshore, with clearing skies.
Low temps also look to be similar to those of tonight, ranging
from 60-65 in the NYC metro area, to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
**Key Points**

* Big warm-up for the second half the week, followed by a brief
  cool-down for the weekend.

* Mostly dry conditions through the period.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night
  with a cold front.

Weak surface high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday,
with mid-level shortwave lift approaching late in the day and
passing through during Wednesday night. There will be mid-level
capping for a good portion of the time, plus moisture and CAPE
will be limited by the time the shortwave can provide some lift
for showers. Will therefore continue with a dry forecast through
the period. NBM looked good for high temperatures, which will
be a few degree above normal. The flow aloft becomes more zonal
on Thursday with a continuation of dry weather. 850mb temps
rise, leading to highs in the 80s for most locations, and even
some 90 degree readings in the NE NJ urban corridor.

A shortwave will help sharpen a longwave trough on Friday as
both approach from the west on Friday. These will support a
cold front pushing through the forecast area - most likely
during the afternoon to evening hours. Have gone slightly above
NBM PoPs, but still capped them at chance for now. Thinking
CAPEs could end up higher than currently progged by global
models, the shortwave would promote steepening mid-level lapse
rates, and there could be upper jet streak lift as well.
Anticipating scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong. Still too early to have too much confidence in
the severe weather potential, but given the aforementioned
ingredients along with progged 35-45kt 0-6km shear, trends will
need to be monitored for the possibility. 850mb temps rise to
around 16-17C. Went slightly below NBM for high temperatures,
mainly for inland areas, but still above average with lower 90s
in the typically warmest spots and mid/upper 80s for most other
locations.

High pressure then builds in from the NW during the weekend with
dry conditions and more comfortable dewpoints. High
temperatures still above normal both days. Looks like high
pressure hangs on for another dry and warmer day for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as a series of surface troughs move across the terminals
into Tuesday night.

Winds will continue shifting to towards the N and then NNE
into the morning hours with outlying terminals light and
variable. Light N-NNE flow continues on Tuesday before sea
breezes develop late morning into the afternoon. Winds shift to
the S at most sites except for Lower Hudson Valley terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of sea breeze on Tuesday may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet through Wed night. Then S winds on the ocean for Thursday
and Friday may gust near 25 kt, primarily west of Fire Island
Inlet, with seas possibly reaching 5 ft on Friday. Aside from
this,sub-advisory conditions are expected through the long term
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low risk of rip current development is expected at all the
ocean beaches for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JE/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BR/DS
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...