609
FXUS61 KOKX 102321
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak sfc trough over the area will move offshore tonight.
Another inland trough developing on Tuesday will also move
offshore Tuesday night, then high pressure will build across
during mid week. A cold front will approach on Friday and move
through in the afternoon and at night. High pressure will then
follow for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
No showers have developed over the forecast area so far, and not
expecting any to develop for the rest of the daylight hours
with such dry conditions. Have therefore removed PoPs into early
evening with this update.

Skies should then become partly cloudy to mostly clear after
a shortwave wave passes by this evening and a surface trough
moves offshore. Temps tonight should bottom out close to 60
in/around NYC and in the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Another sfc trough develops inland daytime Tue, but with a
weaker pressure gradient expect better sea breeze development
in the afternoon along the coast. Another passing shortwave
could touch off an isolated late day shower well inland. Temps
should be similar to those of today, with highs again in the
70s.

This sfc trough will also move offshore, with clearing skies.
Low temps also look to be similar to those of tonight, ranging
from 60-65 in the NYC metro area, to the 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
**Key Points**

* Big warm-up for the second half the week, followed by a brief
  cool-down for the weekend.

* Mostly dry conditions through the period.

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night
  with a cold front.

Weak surface high pressure will be over the region on Wednesday,
with mid-level shortwave lift approaching late in the day and
passing through during Wednesday night. There will be mid-level
capping for a good portion of the time, plus moisture and CAPE
will be limited by the time the shortwave can provide some lift
for showers. Will therefore continue with a dry forecast through
the period. NBM looked good for high temperatures, which will
be a few degree above normal. The flow aloft becomes more zonal
on Thursday with a continuation of dry weather. 850mb temps
rise, leading to highs in the 80s for most locations, and even
some 90 degree readings in the NE NJ urban corridor.

A shortwave will help sharpen a longwave trough on Friday as
both approach from the west on Friday. These will support a
cold front pushing through the forecast area - most likely
during the afternoon to evening hours. Have gone slightly above
NBM PoPs, but still capped them at chance for now. Thinking
CAPEs could end up higher than currently progged by global
models, the shortwave would promote steepening mid-level lapse
rates, and there could be upper jet streak lift as well.
Anticipating scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could be strong. Still too early to have too much confidence in
the severe weather potential, but given the aforementioned
ingredients along with progged 35-45kt 0-6km shear, trends will
need to be monitored for the possibility. 850mb temps rise to
around 16-17C. Went slightly below NBM for high temperatures,
mainly for inland areas, but still above average with lower 90s
in the typically warmest spots and mid/upper 80s for most other
locations.

High pressure then builds in from the NW during the weekend with
dry conditions and more comfortable dewpoints. High
temperatures still above normal both days. Looks like high
pressure hangs on for another dry and warmer day for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR as high pressure slowly builds in from the west through
Tuesday.

SW sea breezes along the Connecticut and Long Island coasts will
diminish after sunset. Winds should shift back to the WNW-NW at
these locations, with the W-NW flow elsewhere diminishing. Winds
will become light N-NNE late tonight at NYC terminals with light
and variable elsewhere. Light N-NNE flow continues on Tuesday
before sea breezes develop late morning into the afternoon.
Winds shift to the S at most sites except for Lower Hudson
Valley terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Wind direction could remain SW at JFK 1-2 hours longer this
evening.

Timing of sea breeze on Tuesday may be off by 1-3 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet through Wed night. Then S winds on the ocean for Thursday
and Friday may gust near 25 kt, primarily west of Fire Island
Inlet, with seas possibly reaching 5 ft on Friday. Aside from
this,sub-advisory conditions are expected through the long term
period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected attm.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low risk of rip current development is expected at all the
ocean beaches for Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/BG
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...