762
FXUS61 KOKX 070523
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
123 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to push east across the area overnight.
A broad area of low pressure then meanders nearby over
southeast Canada Friday and into early next week. High pressure
follow for the middle of next week. A broad area of low pressure
meanders nearby over southeast Canada Friday and into early
next week. High pressure should follow for the middle of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast continues to be on track this morning. The cold front
was located west of NYC on a SWF-MPO-RDG line with a few
showers still popping up along it. There is enough CAPE for now
for this activity, and a lightning strike or two remains
possible.

Some of the 00z CAMs show showers popping up after 06z. Over
eastern zones, the front may not be completely through, but CAPE
will be diminished. Elsewhere, not so sure if there`s any
forcing would cause showers with very limited CAPE. Will
therefore not make any changes after 06z and keep with a dry
forecast for this period.

With light to calm winds and surface moisture from earlier
rainfall, might need to add patchy fog farther west from the
current forecast. Lows around 70 in the city and 60s for most
other spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The upper low moves into the eastern Great Lakes and into Upstate
New York Friday. Scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon
under west/northwest flow, but primarily for northern interior
locations closer to the periphery of the flow of the upper-low. The
latest CAMs and HREF agree with this outcome. Thunderstorms look
unlikely due to a more stable airmass. Did not include thunder
chances in the forecast, but an isolated rumble could still be
possible.

Westerly flow should keep temperatures in the 80s for most, but with
dewpoints in the mid and upper 50s, it will feel less humid than
Thursday. A well-mixed boundary layer may also allow for some
westerly wind gusts near 20mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are no significant changes to the forecast thinking this
weekend through much of next week.

*Key Points*

*Broad low pressure will meander over Northern New England and
southeast Canada this weekend through early next week.

*Dry conditions on Saturday will be followed by a chance of showers
late Saturday night into Sunday with a cold front passage.

*A few weak fronts or surface troughs may pass early next week, but
conditions should remain mainly dry.

*Temperatures likely end up a few degrees above normal this weekend,
trend near normal early next week, then edge above normal middle of
the week.

Anomalous upper low will slowly move across Northern New England
Saturday and then meander over southeast Canada Sunday. The upper
low should shift towards the Maritimes early next week.
The flow aloft over the region will be nearly zonal on Saturday and
this will prevent any development of afternoon/evening showers. A
stronger vortmax will swing around the upper low towards the area
Saturday night into early Sunday. This will help send a cold front
across the region and bring a chance for showers. Instability looks
limited given the timing and have left mention of thunder out of the
forecast for now. The upper trough axis associated with the upper
low then lingers over the region Monday. The guidance indicates the
trough axis could shift offshore Tuesday, but it may also remain
nearby. While moisture and lift are limited, an isolated shower is
possible Monday afternoon and evening and then again on Tuesday.

The trough should be replaced with a middle level ridge Wednesday,
but the modeling does not agree on if it will remain overhead or
push offshore quickly with the approach of the next shortwave. Have
followed the NBM which yields a slight chance PoP Wednesday and
Thursday given the uncertainty. A faster shortwave could introduce a
higher chance for shower Wednesday. A slower trough would lead to
dry conditions for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front slowly pushes through the terminals tonight. Weak
high pressure remains for Friday with a weak cold front or
trough moving through late in the day to early evening.

Mainly VFR, however sub-VFR possible at KGON tonight. Also, have
included some TEMPO groups in a few spots where fog typically
develops.

Light WNW-NW winds overnight. Winds back WSW-SW late Friday
morning/early afternoon, then shift back WNW behind a weak cold
front/trough late day/early evening. Gusts up to around 20kt
during the afternoon and evening. Winds fall to 10kt or less
overnight with some outlying terminals becoming light and
variable.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments overnight possible for fog development. A few gusts
may develops earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday-Sunday. VFR, MVFR possible with a chance of showers
late Saturday night through Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR. A slight chance of showers Tuesday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA continues for the ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet
through tonight. Marginal seas around 5 ft prevail during this
time.

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels Friday into
early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Have continued the ongoing Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal
Fairfield and Westchester for this evening`s high tide cycle.
Elevated astronomical high tides associated with the new moon
will continue to support water levels touching or just surpassing
minor flood benchmarks in these areas.

Water levels may just touch or slightly exceed minor benchmarks for
the same locations plus southern Nassau County with Friday
evenings high tide cycle. Guidance appears to have come down
with the latest data. Prefer to hold off on issuing any
statements or advisories until this evenings high tide passes
and we can assess the latest data tonight.

A high rip current risk continues early this evening at Suffolk
County beaches with moderate elsewhere. There is also a
moderate rip current risk Friday and Saturday at all Atlantic
beaches due to 3-4 ft seas and lingering southerly swell. This
is supported by the latest RCHMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...JC/DBR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC/BC
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...