Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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305 FXUS61 KOKX 301757 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure pushes off the New England coast into this afternoon, with a weak low pressure trough remaining in its wake through this evening. High pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will then build toward the Mid Atlantic coast from late tonight into Friday night Saturday, and move off the coast on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Forecast on track this afternoon. Low pressure continues pushing off the New England coast this afternoon with its associated upper trough axis approaching this afternoon and evening. Moisture is limited, but fairly steep lapse rates may lead to isolated showers, especially east of the Hudson and NYC corridor. There is limited CAPE aloft and latest forecast soundings indicate a cap around 10 kft, so will continue to not mention thunder at this time. Any isolated shower should diminish after sunset. Skies will clear overnight as the trough begins to shift offshore. High temps today should reach the upper 60s across SE CT and the fork of Long Island, lower 70s most elsewhere, and the mid 70s across NYC and NE NJ, which is near normal. Low temps tonight will range from the mid/upper 50s invof NYC, to 45-50 across the interior and in the Long Island Pine Barrens. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Fair wx expected during this time frame along with a gradual warmup as sfc high pressure builds toward the Mid Atlantic coast and vis rising heights aloft as an upper ridge builds toward the East Coast. High temps in the 70s on Friday will reach the upper 70s/lower 80s in most places on Sat, with lower/mid 70s confined to the immediate south shores of Long Island and SE CT. Low temps Fri night should be similar to those of tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too far offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft flattens in the afternoon and evening with the approach and passage of a shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots Sunday afternoon and night for western and far southern portions of the forecast area. Heights recover somewhat on Monday into Tuesday with surface high pressure in control. Dry for Monday. Probably dry for Tuesday as well with deep ridging, however don`t want to remove slight chance/chance PoPs Tuesday afternoon and night just yet as there`s a chance of a surface trough and shortwave aloft triggering a shower. The pattern doesn`t change all that much for Wednesday, but models seem to agree that the ridging shifts more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs therefore for Wednesday as well. NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure continues moving east of the region, while high pressure gradually builds in from the west. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Mainly dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period, although an isolated shower this afternoon and early evening will be possible with a potential brief reduction in visibility to MVFR east of the NYC terminals. Shower chances too low to include in TAF but do indicate a possible brief period of MVFR stratus east of the NYC terminals within a TEMPO group. Winds will be out of the north near 10-15 kt and gusting this afternoon to near 20 kt until around 20-21Z, a little longer, until 22-23Z, east of the NYC terminals. Gusts then subside with sustained winds becoming more NW and decreasing to near 10 kt for this evening. NW winds more in the 5-10 kt range for later tonight and into Friday morning. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... End time of gusts could be a few hours off from TAF. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday through Saturday night: VFR. Sunday: MVFR possible with showers possible at times. Monday: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm N/W of NYC terminals. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Conditions should remain below SCA levels this afternoon, but a gust close to 25 kt possible east of Moriches Inlet. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels through Saturday. Although southerly winds increase on Sunday, they will likely remain below advisory thresholds with seas building up to 3-4 ft by late in the day into Sunday night. Sub-advisory conditions continue on Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The rip current risk is moderate for the Suffolk beaches this afternoon, where combo of SE-S long period swells and offshore flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. Rip current risk remains low for today for the Nassau and NYC ocean beaches, and low for Friday for all the ocean beaches. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/BG NEAR TERM...BG/DS SHORT TERM...BG LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...JM MARINE...JC/BG HYDROLOGY...DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...