892
FXUS61 KOKX 090611
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
211 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides south of the area tonight. A cold front
moves through on Sunday. A series of weak cold fronts or
troughs will move across the area Monday and Tuesday, followed
by high pressure building in for the middle of the week. A
frontal system may impact the area for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Temperatures and
dewpoints were adjusted down along the LI Pine Barrens as cloud
cover has been slower to move in, allowing for more radiational
cooling than expected. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

A weak surface ridge will pass through the area tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. Mid and high level clouds will
increase, mainly after midnight. Showers will develop toward
daybreak ahead of the shortwave driving the front east.
Otherwise, it should remain dry for much of the night with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A weak cold front will move across during the late morning into
early afternoon hours along with a chance of showers. At this
time instability is limited and most forcing looks to stay north
of the CWA. Also, the timing of the frontal passage will limit
the chances of thunderstorms across the area.

Winds will be a bit gusty out of the SW ahead of the front and
then from the WNW behind it in the afternoon. Dry conditions
expected behind the front and into Sunday night.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Warming trend mid to late week, with increasing chances of above
normal temperatures.

*Mainly dry conditions through the period.

*A frontal system may impact the area with showers and
 thunderstorms Friday into next weekend.

An anomalously strong upper trough over eastern Canada and the
Northeast (2-3SD) will slowly lift out to start the week, but
before doing so one last piece of shortwave energy closes off
at the base of the trough Monday night into Tuesday. There are
some small differences between the global models in the
placement of the feature, but regardless of the solutions, the
forecast is mainly dry with the exception of a low chance of
showers across some of the interior Monday afternoon into early
evening. Thereafter, shortwave ridging aloft briefly builds
across the area midweek in tandem with surface high pressure.
While the upper flow flattens out with a fast flow from the
Northern Plains into the Northeast, this is brief as the upper
trough reestablishes itself by next weekend. The associated
frontal system brings increasing chances for convection, mainly
Friday into Friday night. Global models beyond this time point
toward significant height rises for the following week with the
potential for very warm conditions.

As for temperatures, generally stayed close to the NBM. While
the deterministic highs continue to be in the 10th-25th
percentile, not convinced with the thermal profiles to deviate
too much. This results in a gradual warming trend from the
middle to end of the week. Temperatures at the onset are close
to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west overnight and passes across
the terminals from mid to late morning into early afternoon. A
weaker cold front / trough passes through Sunday night.

VFR through the TAF period. Showers may accompany the cold front 12z-
15z for KSWF, 13z-17z for NYC and HPN terminals, 15-18z for KISP and
KBDR, and 16z-19z for KGON. Conditions may briefly drop to MVFR in
the showers, but ceilings are expected to mainly be around 5kft.

Light SW becomes S early Sunday morning. S winds increase after day
break before quickly shifting back to the W with the cold front
passage. Gusts 20-25 kt are expected Sunday afternoon, but should
begin subsiding in the evening. Mainly light W and SW winds, closer
to 5 kt later in the evening.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts in the TAF may be off by 1-2 hours.

Onset of gusts Sunday may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night-Thursday: VFR expected.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
midweek. As strengthening southerly Thursday into Friday could
produce marginal SCA conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, expect a moderate rip current risk
on Sunday, but lowering to low on Monday. A southerly swell of
3-4ft@7s on Sunday will gradually diminish Sunday night into Monday.
A moderate risk may linger into the morning hours on Monday for
SE Suffolk beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/DW
NEAR TERM...20/BR/DS
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...20/DW
HYDROLOGY...20/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...