795
FXUS61 KOKX 240005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
805 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slowly pushes offshore tonight. Weak high
pressure will otherwise be in control through Saturday with a
dry secondary cold frontal passage Friday evening. A weak
frontal system moves through the area Saturday night. High
pressure then briefly returns on Sunday before a series of
frontal systems impact the area during the first half of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front just NW of the area will slowly pass through
the area overnight. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is still
possible over the next few hours with surface based CAPE values
over 1000 J/KG. However, there is a much dry air and high LFC`s
to be overcome.

Otherwise, light winds and sufficient low-level moisture
could bring patchy/areas of fog for coastal areas - mainly over
eastern LI and SE CT. Low temperatures mostly in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front washes out just offshore in the morning with maybe
another weak cold front or trough pushing in here during the
afternoon. Much drier however with this boundary, so no showers
anticipated with it and expecting partly to mostly sunny conditions.
Based on 850mb temps, an even blend of the deterministic and
50th percentile NBM was used for high temperatures. Highs
ranging from the upper 80s in the NE NJ urban corridor to the
mid-upper 70s along the south-facing coasts for eastern LI and
SE CT. Dewpoints will be lower, so not as muggy as it was today.


Dry weather continues into Friday night. Light winds and a clear sky
should allow for some radiational cooling across the Pine
Barrens and parts of the interior. Low in the low 50s for these
spots, ranging up to the mid 60s in NYC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points:

* Above normal temperatures on the weekend transition to near
  or slightly above normal Monday through Wednesday. The end of
  the week cools down a bit.

* Unsettled Monday-Wednesday with multiple frontal systems
  affecting the area.

Overall, there is decent agreement in the upper patter during
this period with some timing issues, especially with the frontal
system closing out the period next Thursday. NBM was closely
followed with some minor adjustments made based on noted trends
with the 12Z operational suite.

Before then though, the period start starts off with warm
ridging aloft and temperatures on the warm side, especially away
from the immediate coast with highs ranging from the mid 70s to
lower 80s. The south shore of LI will be notably cooler due to
a southerly flow off the much cooler ocean waters. A weak
frontal system passes through the area Saturday night with
mainly a chance of showers. Much of the guidance shows a weak
mid level shortwave associated with this system, but there is
quite a bit of dry air to be overcome and instability is weak at
best.

Another area of deepening low pressure emerges from the Plains
on Sunday, tracking up through the Midwest and Great Lakes
Monday into Tuesday. This will send a warm front into the area
Monday into Monday night with numerous showers and a few
thunderstorms. A weak cold frontal passage on Tuesday does not
look active due to deep-layered dry air. There is the potential
for a more robust piece of energy dropping down from the Great
Lakes on Wednesday along with another cold front. Cooler air
follows at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front slowly pushes through tonight. The front stalls and
will linger nearby on Friday.

An isolated SHRA cannot be ruled out this evening, otherwise mainly
VFR. There is a chance for some MVFR and lower conditions for
eastern areas tonight (KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON), mainly after 03Z,
but this is more likely to be patchy fog rather than stratus.

S to SW up to 10kt this evening, before becoming light and variable
overnight for most outlying terminals. On Friday the winds will be
mainly W for western terminals, and for coastal terminals becoming
more S-SSW around 10 kt by 16z-18z. Uncertainty remains high as to
how far inland any sea breeze can get.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected outside of patchy fog along
the coast overnight. Exact timing of sea breeze for KJFK remains
uncertain on Friday. Sea breeze may also reach LGA but confidence
remains low.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm,
with MVFR cond possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond
possible.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters tonight
through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through the middle
of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SE winds of 5-10kt Friday and Saturday along with 1ft 9s
southerly swell should keep the rip current risk low through
Saturday. This is also supported by latest RCMOS at area
beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/DW
NEAR TERM...JC/DW
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW