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000
FXUS61 KOKX 252152
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
552 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure building in through tonight will remain
over the region into Saturday. A warm front lifts north of the
area Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by high
pressure through Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday and
moves across the region Tuesday night. Another cold front may
pass through late Wednesday or next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Forecast on track early this evening. Northern stream trough
remains over northern New England/SE CT tonight, with Canadian
high pressure building in from the northwest through tonight.

Ideal radiational cooling conds tonight with fresh Canadian
airmass, clear skies, and light winds.

Lows in the upper 20s to around freezing for interior of NE NJ,
LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of LI where freeze warnings
have been posted. Frost conditions for all but NYC/NJ metro and
immediate surroundings tonight with lows in the mid 30s. Lows
around 40 for NYC/NJ metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northern stream shortwave trough gradually slides east on
Friday, with upper ridging building in from the west Fri Night
into Saturday. At the same time, good agreement in a vigorous
closed upper low over the northern plains on Friday shearing
into Ontario on Saturday.

At the surface, the center of Canadian high pressure builds
over the area Friday morning and sinks south of the region late
Friday into Saturday.

Unseasonably cool airmass remains over the region on Friday
with light northerly flow giving way to aggressive afternoon
sea breeze development once again. Despite plentiful sunshine
and deep mixing, 850 temps just below freezing will only have
temps topping in the upper 50s to around 60 (several degrees
below seasonable).

Another night of good radiational cooling conds Fri Night,
although with a slightly moderated and moistened airmass, temps
should be a few degrees warmer than tonight. Will likely have
temps dropping into the lower to mid 30s with frost conditions
across interior of NE NJ, LoHud, and S CT, and pine barrens of
LI.

Continued moderation of airmass on Saturday with strengthening
return flow around high pressure to the SE and approaching warm
front to the west. Strong sea breeze signature will likely push
maritime airmass well inland and keeping temps several degrees
below seasonable once again (upper 50s to around 60) for much
of the coastal plain. In addition, increasing high clouds
streaming in ahead of approaching warm front and over the top of
the ridge axis will likely filter sunshine in the afternoon.
Appears any light precip should stay west of the region during
the day though.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main story to start the long term will be anomalously strong
ridging making its way over the eastern US Sunday into Monday
before potentially breaking down Tuesday. A few shortwaves
likely pass across the northeast Tuesday night into Thursday.
The modeling is in good agreement through Monday on the larger
scale pattern before timing/amplitude differences arise Tuesday
through the middle of next week.

*Key Points*

*Mainly dry conditions expected with a few low chances of showers
both Saturday night/early Sunday and then again Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

*A warming trend is likely to begin on Sunday and continue into
Monday with temperatures potentially reaching 10-15 degrees above
normal Monday, especially away from the immediate coast.

*Temperatures remain above normal Tuesday through next Thursday.

A warm front lifts over the area Saturday night and should
end up north Sunday morning. Heights aloft are rising through
this time frame and lift is weak. A few showers are possible
with the front, especially across the interior Saturday night.
The continuation of the building ridge over the eastern states
on Sunday will likely result in at least partial clearing
through the day. A SW flow develops behind the passage of the
warm front allowing temperatures to warm significantly compared
to recent days. There is a significant amount of spread in high
temperatures for Sunday, especially for locations away from the
immediate coast. For some of the warmer locations the NBM
deterministic actually falls below the 25th to 75th percentile
of the ensemble. There should be enough clearing along with
building heights aloft and little onshore flow influence for
temperatures to end up on the higher side. Have decided to blend
in the NBM 50th percentile for now away from the coast which
yields highs middle to upper 70s. The 75th percentile of the NBM
indicates temperatures could reach or exceed 80 degrees.
Onshore flow over Long Island and southern CT likely holds
temperatures in the 60s with some locations potentially close to
70 degrees.

The ridge axis will be overhead on Monday. Strong subsidence
will likely lead to even warmer temperatures compared to
Sunday. The NBM deterministic is near the 25th percentile with
much of the spread on the warmer side of the warmer side of the
ensemble. Have once again blended in the NBM 50th percentile for
the NYC metro, NE NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley/interior SW CT.
The flow is weak during the first half of the day, but sea
breezes should develop in the afternoon. Forecast highs range
from the lower to middle 80s in the warmer spots to the upper
60s to middle 70s near the coast. High temperatures spread only
increases further on Tuesday. For example at KEWR, the 25th
percentile is 71 and 75th percentile is 87 degrees. Given that
this is next Tuesday, have gone close to the NBM deterministic
for now (60s east and lower to middle 70s west). The warmer
highs in the ensemble spread could easily be realized away from
the coast if the front is slower and ridge does not break down
as quickly.

The aforementioned cold front swings through sometime late
Tuesday or Tuesday night. A few showers and potentially a
thunderstorm could accompany the frontal passage. The CSU MLP
has been indicating a very low probability for a severe
thunderstorm with this front during its last few cycles.
Confidence is very low with any convection at this time range.
Confidence is also low in sensible weather details for Wednesday
and Thursday and have followed the NBM deterministic.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong high pressure will build in through the TAF period.


VFR. SSE winds this afternoon at 10 kt or less will become light
and variable overnight. Winds will then return out of the SE
late Friday morning into Friday afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR.

Saturday and Sunday: Mainly VFR. Only slight chance of a shower Sat
night into early Sunday morning.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in afternoon showers and
possible thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through early
next week. Coastal jet development Sat aft could have marginal
SCA wind gusts (20-25kt) for ocean waters and nearshore around
the entrance to NY Harbor.

Warmer air moving over the colder ocean early next week could
develop fog, but it is much too early for any specific details
on timing and extent.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for CTZ005>008-012.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009>011.
NY...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ067>070-079-
     081.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ078-080.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ002.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ004-103-105-
     107.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS/NV
NEAR TERM...DS/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...DS/NV
HYDROLOGY...DS/NV