Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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870 FXUS66 KOTX 071744 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1044 AM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer and drier conditions will continue through Saturday, with a weak system sliding through Sunday. A gradual cooling is anticipated for early next week and breezy conditions returning. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday night: High pressure will lead to a warming and continued drying trend through Saturday. With a bulk of the heat remaining to our south and not expanding as north as previously forecasted. High temperatures Friday will be a couple degrees warmer than what you experienced yesterday, warming again on Saturday another 3 to 5 degrees, with most of the region seeing upper 80s to a few lower 90s. The likelihood of Spokane seeing it`s first 90 degree day is trending less. With low temperatures tonight trending warmer than forecasted, nighttime lows have been slightly increased for the next few nights. Sunday through Sunday night: Changes arrive Sunday with a shortwave passing over the region. As this passes through, there will be some instability in the atmosphere along with atmospheric moisture that could lead to isolated thunderstorms over the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern Washington. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday, but still remain above normal for early/mid June. Cloud cover will also increase from west to east. /KM Monday through Friday: The trough exits to the east and another weak wave will quickly move through the region on the frontside of a shortwave ridge pushing through. This will provide a 20-30% chance of showers and a 20% chance of thunderstorms to extreme northeast WA and the northern ID Panhandle in the afternoon. There will be less cloud cover than Sunday, and with the transient ridge pushing in, temperatures will be similar or a couple degrees warmer than Sunday. Tuesday and Wednesday the cluster analysis shows a flatter solution of broad westerly flow. Thursday the models start to diverge on whether a broad ridge sets up or if a trough from the parent low in the Gulf of Alaska will push towards the west coast. Both solutions are dry, the difference would be how warm we get. By Friday, more ensemble models are on board with the trough approaching, or moving into the Pac NW. It is about a 55/45 split of the models with warmer drier vs cooler wetter. Have an increase in clouds beginning Thursday afternoon and have showers and thunderstorms in for Friday afternoon across northern WA and the north ID Panhandle. Temperatures will cool through the week so that by Thursday we will be around average and Friday below average. Winds will be breezy to locally windy each afternoon and night across central WA. /Nisbet && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High pressure will promote VFR conditions through at least Saturday Night. Winds for most of the region will be out of the north at speeds less than 10 kts. One exception is down the Okanogan Valley where north winds will gusts to around 20 kts today. Similar gusts in the Moses Lake area will continue this morning before decreasing. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least Saturday Night. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 81 52 84 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Coeur d`Alene 79 49 82 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Pullman 78 49 80 55 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Lewiston 87 58 90 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Colville 80 45 84 50 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Sandpoint 78 45 80 51 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Kellogg 76 52 80 57 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Moses Lake 87 54 90 61 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 10 Wenatchee 85 58 88 65 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 Omak 85 54 89 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$