Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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084 FXUS66 KOTX 070458 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 958 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high pressure builds over the region. The weekend will be very warm with afternoon temperatures in the 80s to near 90. A weak weather system Sunday looks to bring a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms to the region. Above normal temperatures continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday: High pressure will deliver a warming trend through Saturday. The models have trended a little weaker with the ridge, and thus the corresponding temperature forecast has trended down a bit more. 850mb temperatures peak near 18-20C on Saturday, resulting in high temperatures in the mid 80s to near 90F, which is 10-15 degrees above normal. The low temperatures have trended down a bit as well. A mid level dry slot will pass over the region tonight into Friday with the dry air lingering Friday Night. This will allow for efficient radiational cooling with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s (except upper 50s Wenatchee area). With the trending down of temperatures, this warm spell looks similar to what was observed during the May 9-16th warm spell. Yet the warm weather and high June sun will lead to minor to moderate heat risk on Saturday, mainly for those sensitive to the heat. JW Saturday night through Thursday: The expectation is the upper level ridge allows max temperatures, both daytime highs and overnight lows, to peak Saturday/Saturday night. Sunday the ridge axis is expected to be to the east of Eastern Washington and North Idaho Sunday as a weather disturbance moves in and displaces it. With this in mind the forecast is worded in such shape or form to depict clouds invading sky from the west with the incoming system along with a mention of showers and thunderstorms with very light, if any precipitation associated with it for Sunday and Sunday night. Upper level ridge remains flat and there might be enough lingering low level moisture to keep a minor slight chance mention of spotty hit or miss afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms over extreme Northeast Washington and portions of the North Idaho Panhandle Monday. Upper level 500mb height falls continue on into at least the middle of the workweek allowing for a slow and gradual cooling trend accompanying a dry forecast. /Pelatti && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High pressure will produce stable conditions across the Inland Northwest through Saturday. Clouds over the next 2 days will be scattered and generally at or above 15 thousand feet. Localized north winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected at Omak Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through at least Saturday Night. /GKoch ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 51 81 50 84 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 51 78 48 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 51 77 50 81 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 58 86 58 90 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 43 80 45 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Sandpoint 48 76 45 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Kellogg 53 76 52 80 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 54 87 53 91 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 56 86 59 89 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 53 85 54 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$