694
FXUS64 KOUN 310003
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
703 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

This Evening/Overnight: Another round of storms/severe weather
concern is expected late this evening. A few scattered areas of
rain continue across eastern portions of the forecast area,
associated with a departing mesoscale convective vortex (MCV).
For the western two-thirds of the forecast area, a mostly dry
afternoon is expected with clearing skies and temperatures warming
into the low-80s.

Across the panhandles/High Plains, widespread convective development
is underway (and expected to continue into the evening) as a weak
upper wave/synoptic forcing overspreads a dryline. With time (into
the mid/late evening), storms are expected to consolidate/merge
along cold pools and propagate towards portions of western
Oklahoma/western-north Texas.

Depending on how much the boundary layer recovers/destabilizes in
the wake of our morning/early afternoon round of
precipitation/cloud cover, severe weather outcomes will be
possible this evening across the aforementioned areas. Given
forecast storm organization (into clusters/a line), damaging
winds appear to be the main severe hazard. A few instances of hail
will also be possible with stronger individual storm cores. Heavy
rainfall and flooding will also be a concern, especially where
heavier totals have occurred over the past few days. A Flood
Watch has been posted for portions of southern Oklahoma/western-
north Texas where concern for flooding is highest through daybreak
Friday.

Intensity of any convective system is expected to gradually decrease
as it approaches central/south-central/southeast Oklahoma early on
Friday morning. An additional zone of storm potential may emerge
across the eastern Texas Panhandle/western-north Texas towards
daybreak. Severe weather chances with both regimes is expected to
be low after 3-4 AM Friday, though a strong to severe storm or
two cannot be ruled out.

Friday: Many areas will note mostly dry time through the day, though
a few showers/storms will remain possible (especially for eastern
zones). Some areas of precipitation are possible on the periphery of
departing convective system(s) through the early afternoon. Severe
weather concern after daybreak tomorrow is low, and many areas are
expected to remain/become dry by the early afternoon.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday Night-Saturday Night: Additional (intermittent) rounds of
storms are expected, posing at least limited concern for severe
outcomes. Guidance continues to highlight multiple weak upper
waves, embedded within an active subtropical jet, emerging across
the Great Divide to begin the weekend. This will introduce
continued potential for convection to advance from the High Plains
into western/northern portions of the forecast area. The most
likely periods for this will be Saturday morning and again on
Sunday morning, though timing of individual storm rounds remains
low predictability. Some severe weather potential will likely
exist, especially on Sunday morning as a stronger low-level
jet/mass response looks to be present.

Sunday-Next Work Week: Transition towards mostly dry weather is
expected into the next work week. Early in the period (late
weekend), a few periods of showers/storms will be possible as signal
exists for continued wave propagation across the Central Plains.
Most areas, especially along/south of Interstate 40, will likely
remain mostly dry, though occasional showers/storms will be possible
further north.

By early next week (Tuesday onward), guidance continues to show a
strong signal for the upper pattern to evolve towards dominant
western US ridging. This will allow seasonable temperatures and dry
weather to prevail in the period.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A thunderstorm complex will move across western Oklahoma this
evening and early Friday. Very gusty winds will be the severe
hazard as these storms move southeast into southern Oklahoma
later. Otherwise, most TAF sites will have MVFR or IFR conditions
overnight and for much of the day Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  76  64  78  63 /  70  70  60  20
Hobart OK         81  62  81  62 /  60  90  50  20
Wichita Falls TX  80  65  81  65 /  70  90  50  20
Gage OK           83  59  80  60 /  50  70  30  20
Ponca City OK     75  64  77  61 /  60  60  70  20
Durant OK         76  66  79  66 /  90  70  80  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for OKZ033>039-044-045-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...09