295
FXUS64 KOUN 302005
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

This Evening/Overnight: Another round of storms/severe weather
concern is expected late this evening. A few scattered areas of
rain continue across eastern portions of the forecast area,
associated with a departing mesoscale convective vortex (MCV).
For the western two-thirds of the forecast area, a mostly dry
afternoon is expected with clearing skies and temperatures warming
into the low-80s.

Across the panhandles/High Plains, widespread convective development
is underway (and expected to continue into the evening) as a weak
upper wave/synoptic forcing overspreads a dryline. With time (into
the mid/late evening), storms are expected to consolidate/merge
along cold pools and propagate towards portions of western
Oklahoma/western-north Texas.

Depending on how much the boundary layer recovers/destabilizes in
the wake of our morning/early afternoon round of
precipitation/cloud cover, severe weather outcomes will be
possible this evening across the aforementioned areas. Given
forecast storm organization (into clusters/a line), damaging
winds appear to be the main severe hazard. A few instances of hail
will also be possible with stronger individual storm cores. Heavy
rainfall and flooding will also be a concern, especially where
heavier totals have occurred over the past few days. A Flood
Watch has been posted for portions of southern Oklahoma/western-
north Texas where concern for flooding is highest through daybreak
Friday.

Intensity of any convective system is expected to gradually decrease
as it approaches central/south-central/southeast Oklahoma early on
Friday morning. An additional zone of storm potential may emerge
across the eastern Texas Panhandle/western-north Texas towards
daybreak. Severe weather chances with both regimes is expected to
be low after 3-4 AM Friday, though a strong to severe storm or
two cannot be ruled out.

Friday: Many areas will note mostly dry time through the day, though
a few showers/storms will remain possible (especially for eastern
zones). Some areas of precipitation are possible on the periphery of
departing convective system(s) through the early afternoon. Severe
weather concern after daybreak tomorrow is low, and many areas are
expected to remain/become dry by the early afternoon.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Friday Night-Saturday Night: Additional (intermittent) rounds of
storms are expected, posing at least limited concern for severe
outcomes. Guidance continues to highlight multiple weak upper
waves, embedded within an active subtropical jet, emerging across
the Great Divide to begin the weekend. This will introduce
continued potential for convection to advance from the High Plains
into western/northern portions of the forecast area. The most
likely periods for this will be Saturday morning and again on
Sunday morning, though timing of individual storm rounds remains
low predictability. Some severe weather potential will likely
exist, especially on Sunday morning as a stronger low-level
jet/mass response looks to be present.

Sunday-Next Work Week: Transition towards mostly dry weather is
expected into the next work week. Early in the period (late
weekend), a few periods of showers/storms will be possible as signal
exists for continued wave propagation across the Central Plains.
Most areas, especially along/south of Interstate 40, will likely
remain mostly dry, though occasional showers/storms will be possible
further north.

By early next week (Tuesday onward), guidance continues to show a
strong signal for the upper pattern to evolve towards dominant
western US ridging. This will allow seasonable temperatures and dry
weather to prevail in the period.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A line of storms is pushing eastward across our area early this
afternoon, with attendant reductions in visibility. An MCV with an
area of moderate precip is slowly moving eastward behind it with
the precip shield decaying. Skies are expected to recover back to
VFR behind the storms/rain in most areas, before the loss of
heating brings back MVFR/IFR ceilings in most areas. Another line
of storms is expected late this evening into early tonight
primarily across southern Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  78  63  84 /  70  60  20  20
Hobart OK         62  81  62  86 /  90  50  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  65  81  65  86 /  90  50  20  20
Gage OK           59  80  60  86 /  70  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     64  77  61  84 /  60  70  20  20
Durant OK         66  79  66  86 /  70  80  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
     for OKZ033>039-044-045-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...04