Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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694 FXUS64 KOUN 310003 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 703 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 This Evening/Overnight: Another round of storms/severe weather concern is expected late this evening. A few scattered areas of rain continue across eastern portions of the forecast area, associated with a departing mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). For the western two-thirds of the forecast area, a mostly dry afternoon is expected with clearing skies and temperatures warming into the low-80s. Across the panhandles/High Plains, widespread convective development is underway (and expected to continue into the evening) as a weak upper wave/synoptic forcing overspreads a dryline. With time (into the mid/late evening), storms are expected to consolidate/merge along cold pools and propagate towards portions of western Oklahoma/western-north Texas. Depending on how much the boundary layer recovers/destabilizes in the wake of our morning/early afternoon round of precipitation/cloud cover, severe weather outcomes will be possible this evening across the aforementioned areas. Given forecast storm organization (into clusters/a line), damaging winds appear to be the main severe hazard. A few instances of hail will also be possible with stronger individual storm cores. Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern, especially where heavier totals have occurred over the past few days. A Flood Watch has been posted for portions of southern Oklahoma/western- north Texas where concern for flooding is highest through daybreak Friday. Intensity of any convective system is expected to gradually decrease as it approaches central/south-central/southeast Oklahoma early on Friday morning. An additional zone of storm potential may emerge across the eastern Texas Panhandle/western-north Texas towards daybreak. Severe weather chances with both regimes is expected to be low after 3-4 AM Friday, though a strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. Friday: Many areas will note mostly dry time through the day, though a few showers/storms will remain possible (especially for eastern zones). Some areas of precipitation are possible on the periphery of departing convective system(s) through the early afternoon. Severe weather concern after daybreak tomorrow is low, and many areas are expected to remain/become dry by the early afternoon. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Friday Night-Saturday Night: Additional (intermittent) rounds of storms are expected, posing at least limited concern for severe outcomes. Guidance continues to highlight multiple weak upper waves, embedded within an active subtropical jet, emerging across the Great Divide to begin the weekend. This will introduce continued potential for convection to advance from the High Plains into western/northern portions of the forecast area. The most likely periods for this will be Saturday morning and again on Sunday morning, though timing of individual storm rounds remains low predictability. Some severe weather potential will likely exist, especially on Sunday morning as a stronger low-level jet/mass response looks to be present. Sunday-Next Work Week: Transition towards mostly dry weather is expected into the next work week. Early in the period (late weekend), a few periods of showers/storms will be possible as signal exists for continued wave propagation across the Central Plains. Most areas, especially along/south of Interstate 40, will likely remain mostly dry, though occasional showers/storms will be possible further north. By early next week (Tuesday onward), guidance continues to show a strong signal for the upper pattern to evolve towards dominant western US ridging. This will allow seasonable temperatures and dry weather to prevail in the period. Ungar && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A thunderstorm complex will move across western Oklahoma this evening and early Friday. Very gusty winds will be the severe hazard as these storms move southeast into southern Oklahoma later. Otherwise, most TAF sites will have MVFR or IFR conditions overnight and for much of the day Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 76 64 78 63 / 70 70 60 20 Hobart OK 81 62 81 62 / 60 90 50 20 Wichita Falls TX 80 65 81 65 / 70 90 50 20 Gage OK 83 59 80 60 / 50 70 30 20 Ponca City OK 75 64 77 61 / 60 60 70 20 Durant OK 76 66 79 66 / 90 70 80 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for OKZ033>039-044-045-050>052. TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...09