906
FXUS64 KOUN 311105
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MCS is expected to exit southeast this morning with a few residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms that could impact portions of
central into southeast Oklahoma through midday. Otherwise, much of
the area should see mainly dry conditions through the afternoon and
early evening. By late in the day, at least some scattered
convection is expected to once again develop across the High plains
to our west. However, lack of low level jet and limited instability
should limit development of another complex of storms for the
overnight period with perhaps just a few isolated showers Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Somewhat better flow then develops during the day Saturday with more
widespread afternoon convection expected through the High plains.
This will then move east/southeast with one or more complexes of
storms that will move across the area Saturday night. This again
should be exiting east/southeast Oklahoma Sunday morning leaving
much of the area dry through the day. Depending on location of the
areas of heavy rainfall and with what has occurred over the past
several days, may need additional flood watch/s.

This pattern looks to continue into the early part of next week,
although perhaps a bit farther north as better flow shifts north. We
will also see a gradual warming trend as models slowly develop upper
ridge out into the Plains from the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Very weak winds through about 10-15k feet, so changes to
ceilings/cloud cover will likely be slow. Most of the overnight
convection has dissipated with the exception of a few
thunderstorms across northwest Oklahoma. This may be associated
with a remnant MCV which a few CAMs suggest will drift southeast
through the morning. IFR ceilings have redeveloped at OKC/OUN
during the past hour and expect a gradual improvement to MVFR
during the early to mid morning. Another area of light
precipitation is moving east towards DUA and this may increase
slightly through the mid to late morning. It is possible for
additional storms to form along the higher terrain this afternoon
and move across northwest Oklahoma late this evening or overnight.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  63  85  67 /  40  20  10  30
Hobart OK         82  62  86  66 /  30  30  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  81  66  86  68 /  40  20  20  30
Gage OK           82  60  86  63 /  20  40  20  40
Ponca City OK     77  61  84  65 /  30  10  10  30
Durant OK         80  65  85  68 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06