Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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215 FXUS64 KOUN 241014 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 514 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front has entered northwest Oklahoma and will sweep through the forecast area today, bringing marginally cooler and drier air behind it. As the front moves southeast of the I-44 corridor this afternoon, CAMS show convection erupting along the front. With MLCAPE in excess of 4,000 J/kg on the warm side of the front (albeit meager deep layer shear), severe storms are likely in south central Oklahoma. Storms are expected to initially be discrete with large to very large hail as the main risk, followed by a fairly quick transition to multicell clusters (giving a risk of hail and damaging winds). Storms should exit our forecast area by early to mid evening. Day && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 513 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Saturday presents another risk for severe storms in the late afternoon and evening (SPC currently has us outlooked with an enhanced risk). The environment across the forecast area on Saturday afternoon / evening will be extremely volatile with MLCAPE up to 3,000 to 5,000 joules, deep layer bulk shear of 60 to 70 knots, and low level SRH starting around 100-200 at 00z and increasing to 300-400 through the evening as the low level jet ramps up. This environment would be very favorable for the development of multiple supercells Saturday evening, capable of tornadoes (some of which may be strong), large to giant hail, and damaging wind gusts. A dryline will serve as the focus for storms, though there is some uncertainty as to exactly how this will play out. Some of the CAMs suggest two areas of convergence--the western dryline, somewhat capped and with less surface moisture to work with; and another dewpoint discontinuity (mid 60s vs mid 70s) closer to highway 81 (where, for example, the HRRR is initiating storms). Where exactly storms initiate remains an open question; and it appears there may be a low chance storms don`t initiate at all if ingredients prove to be out of sync (as a few CAMs suggest). For now, north central Oklahoma remains the most likely area to be affected by severe storms. The dryline will mix further to the east on Sunday, keeping the severe risk in or east of our eastern counties. For the rest of us, downsloping winds will lead to a hot afternoon across much of the area. Another cold front will work through much of the area Sunday night through Monday afternoon. Monday should give us a break from precipitation before rain chances return Tuesday through the rest of the week. Day && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR/MVFR ceilings expected this TAF period. Southerly winds will shift towards the north as a cold front moves across the area late tonight into Friday. Storms will continue to affect parts of central and southern OK overnight. Additional storms will be possible Friday, mainly in eastern parts of the fa. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 83 59 89 71 / 10 0 10 10 Hobart OK 85 57 94 66 / 10 0 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 89 63 95 72 / 0 0 10 10 Gage OK 81 53 92 61 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 81 56 87 69 / 20 0 10 40 Durant OK 91 67 89 74 / 20 20 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ041-046>048-052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...25