Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
048 FXUS63 KPAH 181924 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An brief, isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the Tennessee border in west Kentucky this afternoon. - Dry and very warm conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. - Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Tuesday night and continue through next Saturday. Tuesday night through Wednesday night will have the best chances of thunderstorms and some potential for severe weather. A heavy rainfall and flooding threat could eventually develop. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The pesky upper low is slowly drifting southeast of the Quad State this afternoon, but it is still forcing scattered showers near the Tennessee border in west Kentucky. A stray thunderstorm is possible. If one were to develop it would provide a brief heavy downpour and period of lightning. As the upper low progresses slowly to the southeast, a ridge of high pressure aloft will develop over the Quad State tonight and continue through Tuesday. The ECENS and GEFS both ping 700mb temperatures with a 5-10 year return interval on Tuesday, so the ridge is likely to prevent any convection from developing over or moving into the Quad State through the day Tuesday. The 12Z guidance and even the NBM now keep the entire area dry until Tuesday evening. South winds will increase on Tuesday and may require a Lake Wind Advisory. The south winds will help temperatures soar into the lower 90s over the western half of the region Tuesday afternoon. Highs Sunday and Monday will generally be in the upper 80s. It will definitely be hot, but the humidity is not ridiculous, yet. The ridge finally gives way Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing one or more disturbances to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Quad State. The 12Z guidance generally holds it off through the evening, and then brings the first round eastward overnight into Wednesday morning. A weak cold front will attempt to move through the region Wednesday into Wednesday evening, and that could provide our best chance of severe storms, depending on how much the late night/early morning convection muddles up the environment. For that initial round of convection it looks like the best forcing and flow will lag behind it, and the late night timing certainly is not good for the instability. It is not certain if the front will actually make it through the entire area Wednesday/Wednesday night, and if it does, it certainly won`t make it very far south of the area. Therefore, there will be some chance of training thunderstorms over southern portions of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night, and that could lead to some flooding concern. The flow aloft will become zonal by Thursday and with the boundary not likely to be far south of the Quad State, disturbances in the flow could easily bring the boundary back across the region, resulting in more rounds of convection. The NBM has a lot of likely PoPs late in the week, which are probably overdone given the uncertainty displayed in the models, but we cannot argue with some PoPs each day through next Saturday. The repeated rounds of convection could eventually lead to a heavy rainfall and flooding threat. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Any convection this afternoon should remain south of the TAF sites. Clear and calm conditions tonight should lead to at least some MVFR fog at all locations. IFR and lower visibilities will be possible, especially at KCGI and KMVN. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DRS