Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
994 FXUS63 KPAH 232334 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 634 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms possible each day through Monday. Some could be strong to severe, particularly Sunday. - Confidence in details such as the timing and intensity of storms is fairly low. - Drying out Tuesday onward with sfc high pressure. Highs will be at or just below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 This afternoon there is some ongoing scattered convection moving through southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Mid/upper level shortwave ridging is moving overhead this evening and tonight. This should help to keep us dry overnight. Expect overnight lows in the mid 60s. An upper level trof swings through the northern Plains and into MN tomorrow with a vertically stacked sfc low and cold front running to the south. Some sporadic convection may develop along our southern border in the morning hours, but otherwise we should remain dry till the afternoon. Then in the afternoon, the main convection is expected to be a line of storms that forms along the front and moves through the area. With regards to severe potential, there is weak 0- 6 km shear at around 20 kts, 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MUCAPE, and mid level lapse rates are around 6.5-7 degC/km. Damaging winds would likely be the main threat. The front then stalls over the area and there is some discrepancy as to whether convection continues into the overnight hours. Saturday weak midlevel ridging builds in and should keep us mostly dry with the exception of a few storms possible south of the front with day time heating. On Sunday a trof over the Plains pushes into the upper Midwest. The sfc low looks to move through northern MO and southern IA. Mainly scattered convection is expected across the area at this time, some of which may be strong to severe. The severe threat looks pretty good with about 50 kts of 0-6 km shear, 2,500- 3,500 J/kg of MUCAPE, mid level lapse rates around 7.5-8.5 degC/km, and even 20-30 kts of 0-1 km shear. This means all modes of severe would be possible. CSU MLP still has us in a 60% hatched area for severe potential Sunday. This is the same as it was for May 8th, and the MLP has been performing well recently. There is some model discrepancy on Monday with an embedded shortwave aloft. The GFS swings this shortwave through Monday afternoon and generates some convection over the area. The EC however, swings it through Monday night and keeps us dry. Right now NBM has some slight chance PoPs for Monday afternoon, but this could change. Conditions shift to dry for Tuesday onward with northwest flow aloft and ridging building over the Rockies through midweek. Highs will be at or slightly below normal. Then there is major model discrepancy with the progression of the ridge to end the week. The EC keeps the ridge and moves it east over us, where as the GFS breaks down the ridge before it can reach us. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 There is some potential for MVFR cigs to redevelop late tonight into tomorrow morning, with guidance hinting at parts of southeast Missouri and also our eastern counties as the areas most likely. Other concern is some patchy fog to develop overnight. Went ahead and put mention in KEVV/KOWB where it appears most likely. Light/calm winds tonight become southerly tomorrow. May have some isolated convection move in from the south late tonight/tomorrow morning. Additional stronger convection is possible tomorrow afternoon, but timing and placement is very uncertain. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY AVIATION...SP