Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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945 FXUS63 KPAH 031951 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 251 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place through through mid week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms through Wednesday. - A few storms this afternoon could become strong capable of producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will also be possible. - High temperatures are expected to trend warmer, reaching the mid to upper 80s today through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Weak upper level flow will remain across the region for the first half of this week. A few disturbances will move through which should favor scattered showers and thunderstorms today through Wednesday before a cold front swings through the area. Drier weather is expected late this week into the weekend. This afternoon, a MCS was noted across southeast Oklahoma and moving in a general SE motion, along the thickness gradient. Moisture advection along a weak boundary across portions of SEMO this afternoon is driving showers and thunderstorms. The environment is unstable with mixed layer CAPE around 2000 J/kg. While instability is strong, deep layer shear will be limited to only around 20 knots at best. This should keep things more pulse in nature. Heavy rains and isolated flooding seem to be the main hazard, although a few instances of gusty winds and small hail could accompany the stronger cells. An upper level disturbance swings through on Tuesday which kicks off additional convection. There are some questions around the coverage of convection though. Slightly stronger low level flow may help to increase shear upwards of 20-30 knots, yet instability may be slightly lower. Again, think the greater threat will be localized heavy rain/flash flooding. A cold front swings through on Wednesday bringing with it another round of showers and storms. The absence of stronger flow aloft should limit wind shear, although there may be sufficient instability for a few strong storms. Again, the main hazards will be heavy rain/flash flooding. Temperatures this week will be warm, in the mid to upper 80`s. Surface ridging builds in from the northwest Thursday with a northwest wind ushering a drier airmass. Aloft, flow orients more northwesterly favoring cooler temperatures through the weekend. Surface high pressure across the region will promote drier weather as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions expected into Tuesday afternoon. Already starting to see some convection across portions of SEMO this afternoon. Confidence on this activity or future activity impacting the terminals is too low to mention in the TAFs. Southwest winds this afternoon between 5-10 knots will subside overnight before picking back up again Tuesday afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD