Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
523 FXUS63 KPAH 180858 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 358 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog is likely through the early morning hours, though uncertainties with cloud cover may limit fog development in portions of the Quad State. - A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region Saturday, especially west Kentucky, while Sunday and Monday should be dry. - An active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible during the mid week period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Calming winds and recent rainfall provide favorable conditions for dense fog development through the early morning. However, periods of cloud cover will limit the duration and coverage of dense fog. With moderate support from the HREF and a few sites below a mile by midnight, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued, though only Carbondale and Hopkinsville have dropped to a quarter mile vsby so far. Trends have been towards lower vsbys over the past couple hours but it is likely the end result will be a very hit or miss dense fog map. An upper low is crossing from Arkansas towards Tennessee, with a few showers and storms in northeast Arkansas that might sneak in but will generally stay south. Shower/storm chances increase to the chance range later today, mainly in southern portions of Western Kentucky, associated with the upper low. Following its departure, ridging moves through Sunday into Monday keeping conditions dry as temperatures trend warmer. An upper level low moves ENE towards Wisconsin Monday, keeping precip to the northern fringes of the CWA Monday night. Active weather reaches the area late Tuesday, continuing through the remainder of the week. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies Monday night, deepening and progressing northeastward towards the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. Breezy southerly winds ahead of the front will bring plenty of moisture to the Quad State Tuesday with highs a summerlike upper 80s to near 90. Models have converged closer to a Tuesday night to Wednesday morning timing for a cold front, bringing showers and storms. Strong storms and the possibility of some severe storms remains. The line-normal and progressive nature of the storm line should keep flooding issues limited despite the ample rainfall that has already occurred this month. Late week precip chances remain due to an impulse in the south and another system in the Northern Plains which might send another front through the forecast area. Ensemble spread increases following the Tuesday-Wednesday system so confidence in late next week is low. Following morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs max out near 80 to the lower 80s today. A warming trend brings highs to the upper 80s Sunday and Monday with a few 90s possible Tuesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday night remain elevated in the upper 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool slightly following the midweek front. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Complicated forecast tonight, as an upper trough/low moves slowly overhead. Winds will become calm this evening and where skies clear, IFR or lower conditions in fog and/or low ceilings are likely. However, the presence of the upper trough means there could be substantial mid-level clouds to prevent such development. Went with dense fog at KCGI and KMVN, and then factored in more mid cloud farther south and east. Conditions will improve to VFR by midday, but 4-5kft ceilings are likely over much of the area through the afternoon. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ075>078- 080>094. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ076-086- 087-100-107>112-114. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT /9 AM EDT/ this morning for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...DRS