108
FXUS63 KPAH 042017
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this
  afternoon becoming more numerous Wednesday along a cold front.

- Any storms will be capable of producing very heavy downpours
  and frequent lightning.

- Drier weather expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Aloft, an upper level disturbance is moving across IA/MO this
afternoon. Morning cloud cover has slowed destabilization, but
recent clearing is beginning to help destabilize the boundary
layer. Recent mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE of generally 500 J/kg
or less while an area of cinh was also analyzed which matches
with the lack of cu field. Continued solar heating should boost
those numbers up closer to 500-1000 J/kg by the late afternoon.
The remnant circulation from an overnight MCS may initiate
convection this afternoon and this scattered convection will
move NE through the area into this evening. Low shear/marginal
CAPE should keep storms from reaching severe levels, although a
few strong ones are certainly possible. The main threats from
these will be flooding, and gusty winds.

A cold front will begin to move through the region Wednesday morning
and into the afternoon hours. A bit higher coverage of showers
and storms are expected along and ahead of this front although
the better forcing will be well north of the area. Drier weather
is expected Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles to the
northwest. Northerly winds will usher in a drier airmass with
dewpoints in the 50`s. Temperatures will also be a few degrees
cooler. For the weekend, northwest flow develops aloft which may
result in a few upper disturbances moving through at times with
a gradual increase in chances of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mostly VFR expected this afternoon into tonight. More scattered
SHRA/TSRA possible this afternoon. Any of this activity could
bring temporary restrictions to CIGS and Visb. A cold front will
bring more showers and storms Wednesday morning. MVFR CIGS are
also expected Wednesday morning slowly improving by the end of
the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD