848
FXUS63 KPAH 021732
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  through much of this week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms, mainly Monday through Wednesday.

- The storms on Monday will be capable of producing very heavy
  downpours, gusty winds and small hail. Localized flooding will
  also be possible.

- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the
  mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure will build across the region today, allowing for a
break in the precipitation and partly cloudy skies. As the high
departs to the east tonight into Monday, a warm front is expected to
lift north on an increasing southerly wind. Guidance continues to
show a shortwave drifting eastward across Missouri Monday morning,
reaching the Quad State Monday afternoon into Monday evening. As the
shortwave arrives, expect instability to increase to around 3000
J/kg. Deep layer wind shear is expected to be lacking at only 15 to
20 kts. The lack of shear would lead to a better chance of seeing
pulse-type thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening with very heavy
rainfall, gusty winds and hail being the main threats. Much of the
area is under a Marginal Risk of severe for Monday
afternoon/evening. PWAT values jump up to around 1.5 to 2 inches by
Monday afternoon, which will also lead to at least a localized flash
flooding potential.

Another shortwave is progged to pass through or near the area during
the day Tuesday, bringing another chance for showers and storms.
Instability is a bit lower with that shortwave (1000 J/kg) and shear
is expected to be 20kts or less. Heavy rain and lightning will both
be a possibility with that system, but the severe threat looks
evening lower for Tuesday.

The next system and more widespread chances for showers and storms
will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front approaches and
passes through the area from the west. The latest guidance has
frontal passage occurring late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of the front along with
heavy downpours, but widespread severe weather does not appear
likely at this time with weak shear and instability around 1000
J/kg.

Drier conditions will return for the end of the week
(Thursday/Friday) as high pressure builds back into the region. The
next chance of precipitation may arrive as early as Saturday, but
there are many differences in the guidance this far out!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR cigs remain in the far northeast corner of the Quad State.
Cigs should mainly remain around 3500-5000 ft through the TAF
period, with additional high clouds moving in from the west
late. Variable 5 kt winds become calm overnight, then shift to
southerly for tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...ATL