620
FXUS63 KPAH 012055
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
355 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rain, and a few thunderstorms, could result in
  isolated flooding issues this afternoon and evening.

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  next week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and
  storms, mainly Monday to Wednesday.

- High temperatures are projected to trend warmer, reaching the
  mid to upper 80s Monday to Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Scattered showers are developing this afternoon, progressing
eastward through the Quad State. Localized heavy rainfall is
occurring, with a few spots (mainly around Mississippi County
into Ballard/Carlisle Counties) experiencing training, which may
lead to flooding. Rainfall estimates in those areas are up to
3-7 inches. Lightning activity has struggled to get going, and
opportunities for clearing this afternoon have been limited. An
upper trof moves through to our north this evening bringing the
last chance for some organized thunderstorms. Even strong storms
are unlikely, let alone severe. Highs of 70-80 today will be the
coolest in the 7 day forecast. Precip exits the region late
tonight with calm winds settling in. Any areas that are able to
see even temporary clearing tonight can easily develop fog, but
clouds are likely to continue rotating in from the northwest so
this will need monitoring tonight.

Dry weather is anticipated Sunday as high pressure moves
through, with a warm front lifting north Monday as winds shift
to southerly and become breezy. An upper level disturbance moves
across the Heartland Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms.
Plenty of CAPE will be available but very little shear, with
pulse storms more likely though some models attempt to organize
a line in Central Missouri. A marginal risk in the Day 3 SPC
outlook covers this potential.

Active weather continues with a second disturbance moving
through Tuesday. Wednesday brings greater potential for a
frontal passage as an elongated trough digs into the Great Lakes
while ridging builds in the west resulting in northwesterly flow
aloft. From Monday to Wednesday, the southerly winds bring in
warm air, lifting highs to the mid to upper 80s.

Following the Wednesday front, drier conditions become more
likely for the end of the week. However, models set up a
boundary between the Great Lakes low and the southwest ridge and
develop precip along the boundary. Should the boundary line up
across the Quad State (at the moment, ensembles lean further
south), PoPs will need to increase late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Rain continues to move through the eastern half of the Quad
State, with scattered shower development in the west. These
showers will continue this afternoon and evening from west to
east. Lightning activity will be fairly limited as sky cover
remains BKN-OVC, limiting afternoon-evening convective potential.
IFR to MVFR cigs with rain will briefly lift to VFR, then drop
back down to MVFR-IFR overnight. Vsby drops accompany heavy
rain and storms. If any partial clearing can occur tonight, some
fog development is possible, but clearing potential is low,
especially in the northeast. Winds out of the south today will
trend lighter, becoming calm tonight, and remaining light
tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL