291
FXUS61 KPBZ 080523
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
123 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered showers are expected Sunday with a weak
upper level disturbances. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated
with temperature fluctuating between near and below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Clouds will continue to dissipate this morning under high
  pressure.
- Quiet weather and near-normal temperatures are expected
  Saturday.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Warm air, associated with building ridge over Indiana/western
Ohio, will continue to track east early this morning and
dissipate any lingering clouds across the region.

Quiet, dry, and near-normal temperatures are expected to prevail
into Saturday evening under high pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A passing shortwave and cold front will return light rain to
  the region Sunday.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Clouds will increasing from west to east tonight amid moist
advection Saturday night into early Sunday.

A shortwave advance and its associated cold front will advance
into the region Sunday. Precipitation chances peak ahead of the
boundary Sunday morning; this timing should keep instability
generation minimal and thus lightning/severe probabilities low.
The lack of strong column moistening and weak overall ascent
should keep QPF totals low as most of the region has less than
20% probability of exceeding 0.25". Northwest PA and its closer
proximity to upper jet stands the best chance for seeing
slightly higher amounts, but probabilities of exceeding 0.5" are
only 10%.

Shower activity will become more isolated through the afternoon
as the shortwave exits as dry advection commences in its wake.
Clearing overnight skies and cold advection effects will be
muted by elevated wind, resulting seasonable low temperature.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Persistent upper troughing will support below seasonable
  temperature and low probability rain chances Monday.
- Temperature moderation likely through the weak under
  influence of high pressure.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Additional shortwave movement within Great Lakes troughing will
reinforce the seasonably cool temperature Monday while
generating low probability / isolated afternoon showers favoring
northwest PA and the higher terrain. Clearing skies plus high
pressure Monday night will create the coolest temperature of the
weak, as lows Tuesday morning approach 10 degrees below average.

Ensembles favor gradual height rises through much of the work
week as surface high pressure centers along the Atlantic Coast.
Expect a continuation of dry weather and temperature rising near
to above seasonable averages through Thursday.

Variation remains high on the late-week period, with models
diverging into ridging versus troughing solutions. A ridging
outcome would translate to above normal temperature and low
probability afternoon thunderstorms while troughing would
translate to falling temperature and more widespread convection
along a passing cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected through this evening as flat ridging builds
across the Upper Ohio Valley region. A few cumulus, and
increasing cirrus, clouds are expected through the day ahead of
the next approaching cold front. This front will spread showers
and MVFR restrictions across the area late tonight as it
approaches and crosses the region.

Mixing will result in west wind gusting up to 20kt during the
daylight hours today, before diminishing this evening.

.Outlook...
VFR should return by late Sunday morning behind the exiting
cold front. Additional restrictions and scattered showers are
expected again late Sunday and Monday with another crossing
upper trough. VFR returns Tuesday and Wednesday under building
high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...WM