562
FXUS61 KPBZ 100808
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
408 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday
under an upper-level through pattern. Rising temperatures and
dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period.
Thunderstorm chances may return Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Pockets of river valley fog may develop before sunrise.
- Cool conditions will persist today under northwest flow.
- A few light showers may develop after 2pm.


--------------------------------------------------------------

3am Update: Added a brief period of river valley fog due to
radiational cooling for north of I-70 through 6am.

Previous Discussion:

Cloud coverage will increase just before dawn from the north as
a new shortwave ejects across the Great Lakes. With spots of
clearing early this morning, temperatures will drop five degrees
below average due to radiational cooling.

Dry, quiet is likely through early afternoon. A few stray
showers may develop downstream of Lake Erie as the shortwave
enters eastern Ohio/western PA. With 850mb temps only ranging
between 5 to 6 degrees Celsius, MaxT temps will struggle to
reach 70F north of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-40s
  with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop.
- Cool conditions persist into Tuesday.
- Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average
  temperatures across the region.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry, quiet, and cool weather is anticipated tonight into early
Tuesday morning with a lingering upper-level low and clearing
clouds prompting radiational cooling. Probabilities range
between 60 to 95% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to
45F. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where
persist clear conditions are likely. Hi-Res model guidance are
also suggesting pockets of fog in eastern Ohio and along the
West Virginia ridges. However, the probability of hazardous
driving conditions (low visibility) is still considered low.


Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under weak
ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday as
cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above
the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from
the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday.
- Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return
  Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be
  considered strong to severe.
- Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable
  late week into early next week.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over
central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the
Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s
to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the
region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions
of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday.

Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several
runs of the long range models suggest convection may be
organized along the cold front. Probability of organized
convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to
40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance.

Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge
axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist
conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be
monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the overnight with winds 5 knots or
less. Ceiling restrictions will return early Monday as another
weak cold front crosses the area and cold advection in northwest
flow reinforces low level moisture. Latest ensemble
probabilities have trended less aggressive with restrictions
reaching as far south as PIT with about a 30-50% chance there.
Confidence is highest that FKL/DUJ see MVFR CIG restrictions as
probability continues to advertise near an 80% chance. Will
evaluate the incoming guidance overnight, but trends are toward
possibly sparing most sites from MVFR and instead bottoming out
at low-end VFR. Post-frontal cold air will keep low to mid
level clouds in place through much of the afternoon, eventually
scattering from NW to SE by Monday evening with an incoming push
of drier air.

There may be a brief, isolated shower or two up around FKL/DUJ
in the 09Z-15Z timeframe, but confidence in that occurring
remains low and impacts (in addition to the ongoing MVFR CIGs)
would be minimal. Gradient induced northwesterly wind will see
a slight uptick from around 4-7 kts ahead of the front to around
7-10 knots with occasional gusts to 15 kts behind the front.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday
through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return
Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley/MLB