995
FXUS61 KPHI 280452
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1252 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses through our region tonight into Tuesday
morning. Weak high pressure builds through the region Tuesday.
Low pressure passes through Wednesday and Wednesday night. High
pressure returns to close out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Initial cold front is through eastern Pennsylvania and western
New Jersey, and will continue to track east and will be offshore
by daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly ended, but
cannot rule out a few lingering brief showers over the next
couple of hours. Some patchy fog will develop until the cold
front is through the region as surface dew points are still
well in the 60s, and the ground will be wet from earlier
rainfall.

Otherwise, a secondary cold front will pass through later in
the day on Tuesday. Temperature gradient across either front
isn`t significant, so temperatures on Tuesday may be close to
what occurred on Monday. However, the big change will be noticed
in the humidity. Surface dew points drop from the upper 60s/low
70s on Monday to the upper 50s/low 60s on Tuesday.

Conditions will be mostly dry on Tuesday, isolated storms are
possible in the southern Poconos as a lagging mid and upper
level short wave trough slides just northwest of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
That upper trough will be over the Northeast/Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic for the mid-week period. A short wave trough
will dive into the base of the trough Tuesday night, and surface
low pressure develops over the Appalachians. This low will the
pass through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Showers will become likely along with scattered thunderstorms
for most of the area Wednesday. With highs generally in the mid
to upper 70s and dew points mainly in the mid to upper 50s, SB
CAPE looks to be minimal, generally up around 500 J/kg and
highest 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will be 35-45 kt, mainly over
southern New Jersey and Delmarva. So while thunderstorms are
possible, there does not look to be a widespread severe weather
outbreak at this time. Showers taper off Wednesday night as low
pressure departs.

Another shortwave trough is expected to cross on Thursday, but
by then, moisture will be very limited, so only have a slight
chance of showers and storms at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Long Term period should mostly be dry as surface high
pressure builds over the area. Upper trough departs over the
weekend and will be replaced by mid- level ridging. Conditions
should remain dry into the weekend with the next system
approaching early in the new week.

Cooler Friday with below normal temperatures, and then
temperatures return to normal levels over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...Some CIG/VSBY restrictions possible until the cold
front passes through the region. Otherwise, VFR. S winds 5 to 10
kt become W. Moderate confidence overall.

Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions Wednesday in
SHRA/scattered TSRA.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Lingering showers taper off. Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions
tonight through Tuesday. S winds 10 to 15 kt will become W going
into daybreak. Gusts up to 20 kt Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected
through the week. VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered
thunderstorms expected on Wednesday.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday, winds will shift to more of a W to SW flow. There
will continue to be a MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents
at NJ beaches and a LOW risk at DE beaches.

For Wednesday, it appears that most of the region should see a
LOW risk for rip currents. However, with the unique bathymetry
of Altantic County, the risk there may be MODERATE.

As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in
the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches
this holiday weekend if venturing out into the water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Johnson/MPS
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS
SHORT TERM...Johnson/MPS
LONG TERM...Johnson/MPS
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS
MARINE...Johnson/MPS