526
FXUS61 KPHI 030715
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled cold front across the area will begin to move south
of the area today. Dry high pressure will build into the region
on Friday and remain in control through the weekend, providing
seasonable temperatures and tranquil weather conditions. Warmer,
more humid, and unsettled conditions will return early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Tranquil weather ongoing across the area early this morning
with clear skies and light winds. Temperatures are mainly in the
60/70s, with some 50s in the higher terrain. Patchy areas of
fog are starting to develop, but are mainly confined to the
usual sheltered areas.

For the remainder of the morning, not much to write home about
as skies will be sunny through midday. By the afternoon, things
will become a bit more active as another cold front approaches
from the northwest, triggering showers and thunderstorms to
develop. It appears that the `best` forcing will reside north
and east of our immediate forecast area up into the Hudson
Valley and New England, however a corridor of MLCAPE up to 2000
J/kg and 0-6 km shear around 40 kt will be available. Given
these parameters and observing the 00Z CAM guidance, suggests
that isolated to scattered multicellular storm clusters will be
most probable this afternoon. General timing will be from 2-9 PM
from northwest to southeast. SPC has maintained a SLIGHT risk
(Level 2/5) for severe weather for areas north and east of
Philadelphia with locales south and west in either a MARGINAL or
general thunder risk. The primary threat will be damaging wind
gusts as low-level lapse rates are quite steep, however cannot
rule out a few instances of severe hail as shear is favorable.
Highs today will mainly be in the 80s, although a few 90+ degree
readings are possible over southern NJ and the Delmarva.

For tonight, any remaining storms will weaken quickly after
sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. The front will make its
way off the coast, giving way to mostly clear skies. Lows
should fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and seasonable weather conditions expected for Independence
Day and the holiday weekend.

An upper trough axis will be moving offshore by Friday morning,
with broad ridging developing across the region in its wake
through much of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will
build into the area Friday, then begin to shift offshore on
Saturday with return flow developing on Sunday. This setup will
fortunately keep convection suppressed through the holiday
weekend.

For Independence Day, a rather pleasant and dry early summer
day is forecast. The strengthening ridge across the region will
inhibit any thunderstorm chances. The post frontal regime will
translate to temperatures right at normal values (highs in the
mid 80s) and dewpoints mixing out quite nicely into the 50s
under sunny skies. A great day for any outdoor holiday
festivities! Friday night will be the coolest night of the
stretch, with low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s and dry
air making for a very pleasant early summer night.

The broad ridging will dominate the region over the weekend,
which will keep convection suppressed and temperatures near
normal, though temperatures will start trending upward a couple
degrees each day. Saturday will be another very pleasant day,
similar to Friday as the surface high slides overhead. High
temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 80s under sunny skies
and dewpoints mixing out nicely once again to provide us with
some low humidity. By Sunday, high pressure will be located
offshore, resulting in some return flow and thus a more sensible
increase in temperatures and humidity levels compared to the
previous days. Highs Sunday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in
the 60s to near 70 degrees both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Return flow will continue into early next week as upper ridging
shifts out to sea and some troughing develops near the Great
Lakes. This will result in more unsettled conditions developing
again, with mostly diurnally driven chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Any severe threats remain to be seen. The
greatest chances for showers and storms currently looks to be
Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect temperatures to start trending
slightly above normal early next week as well, though they
should moderate some toward the middle of the week. Highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s, along
with increasing humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR/SKC. Some patchy mist possible at KMIV/KACY
after 08Z. Light winds favoring a westerly component around 5 kt
or less. High confidence.

Thursday...Primarily VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon; primarily after 18Z for
KABE/KRDG, and after 21Z for KTTN/KPNE/KPHL so have included
VCTS at these terminals. Remainder of terminals, confidence is
quite low so left out of TAF for now. West-northwest winds
around 10 kt with a few gusts in excess of 15 kt possible.
Moderate confidence.

Thursday night...Primarily VFR. Residual showers and
thunderstorms should wane by 01-03Z. Northwest winds around 5 kt
or less. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

Monday...Prevailing VFR. Isolated thunderstorms possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through tonight. West winds
around 5-10 kt this morning will become south-southwest around
10-15 kt this afternoon. For tonight, winds will veer from
southwest to north around 10-15 kt with the passing of a cold
front. Seas of 2-3 feet. Outside of an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon, fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...No marine hazards expected.

Rip Currents...

For today, Southwest winds around 10 mph with breaking wave
heights of 1-3 feet. The residual SSE swell will lower to 1-2
feet and shorten to 6-8 seconds. As a result, have maintained a
LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for all beaches.

For Friday, northwest wind in the morning will become
southeasterly during the afternoon at 5-10 mph, with breaking
wave heights of 1-3 feet. Southeasterly swell around 2 feet at
7-8 seconds in length. Will carry a MODERATE risk for dangerous
rip currents for all New Jersey beaches outside of Monmouth
county, where the wind will be more shore-parallel. Will carry a
LOW risk for dangerous rip currents for Monmouth County and
Delaware beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/DeSilva/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...Staarmann
AVIATION...DeSilva/Staarmann
MARINE...DeSilva/Staarmann